Intelligence agents from all over the globe have poured into this city, Nigeria's capital, to help find the nearly 300 Nigerian schoolgirls abducted by the Islamist extremist group Boko Haram more than a month ago - but there has been little or no progress in bringing the young women home.
The problem, many involved in the rescue effort say, is the failings of the Nigerian military.
There is a view among diplomats here and with their governments at home that the military is so poorly trained and armed, and so riddled with corruption, that not only is it incapable of finding the girls, it is also losing the broader fight against Boko Haram. The group has effective control of much of the northeast of the country, as troops withdraw from vulnerable targets to avoid a fight and stay out of the group's way, even as the militants slaughter civilians.
Boko Haram's fighters have continued to strike with impunity this week, killing dozens of people in three villages in its regional stronghold, but also hitting far outside its base in the central region. Car bombs have killed well over 100, according to local press reports.
One recent night, Boko Haram fighters ambushed a patrol that had sought to leave Chibok, the town where the girls were kidnapped, killing 12 soldiers. The next day, when the bodies were brought to the Seventh Division - the main army unit taking on Boko Haram - soldiers angry about the loss of their comrades opened fire on the car carrying their commanding officer, Maj. Gen. Ahmadu Mohammed, as he was heading to an armory. The commander was unharmed and the soldiers were arrested.
"It's been our assessment for some time that they are not winning," said one Western diplomat in Abuja, speaking anonymously in keeping with diplomatic protocol.
For the moment, assistance from France, the US, Israel and Britain is focused on answering questions that ultimately might guide a rescue attempt. Where exactly are the girls? Have they been split up into groups? How heavily are they guarded?
Desperate for clues, the United States has dispatched drones to scan the 37,000 square miles of Sambisa Forest, a scrubby semidesert tangle of low trees and bushes in the corner of northeastern Nigeria where the girls are believed to be held.
"You have a lot of guys in town right now," said the diplomat, referring to foreign intelligence and security personnel. But, he added, "A lot of this is assessment, and this is a pretty steep learning curve." And, one senior diplomat offered a sober picture of the prospect, for now: "Realistically I don't think we've seen anything to indicate that we are on the verge of a huge breakthrough."
© 2014 The New York Times News Service
