Risk of US recession now higher and more front-loaded, warns Goldman

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists warned the risk of a US recession has grown more likely, and have downgraded their gross domestic product growth forecasts for the economy. 

The Goldman economists now see a 30% probability of entering a recession over the next year, compared to 15% previously, and a 25% conditional probability of entering a recession in the second year if one is avoided in the first, they wrote in a Monday research note. That implies a 48% cumulative probability in the next two years compared to a 35% estimate previously.

“We now see recession risk as higher and