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US Fed raises interest rates by 25 bps, foresees another hike in December

The Fed sees the US economy growing at a faster-than-expected 3.1% this year

Jerome Powell

In a speech last month, the Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, discussed the 1990s experience, suggesting that Greenspan’s strategy at that time was one to emulate

Reuters Washington

The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday, as expected, and left its monetary policy outlook for the coming years largely unchanged amid steady economic growth and a strong job market.

In a policy statement that marked the end of the era of "accommodative" monetary policy, Fed policymakers lifted the benchmark overnight lending rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 2.00 per cent to 2.25 per cent.

It still foresees another rate hike in December, three more next year, and one increase in 2020.

That would put the U.S. central bank's benchmark overnight lending rate at 3.4 per cent, roughly half a percentage point above its estimated "neutral" rate of interest, at which rates neither stimulate nor restrict the economy.

 

That tight policy stance is projected to stay level through 2021.

But the Fed sees the economy growing at a faster-than-expected 3.1 per cent this year and continuing to expand moderately for at least three more years, amid sustained low unemployment and stable inflation near the central bank's 2 per cent target.

"The labour market has continued to strengthen ... economic activity has been rising at a strong rate," the Fed said in a statement that removed its longstanding reference to the fact that monetary policy remained "accommodative."

It inserted no substitute language for the phrase, which had been a staple of its guidance for financial markets and households for much of the past decade. The wording had become less and less accurate since the central bank began increasing rates in late 2015 from a near-zero level, and its removal means the Fed now considers rates near neutral.

The rate hike was the third this year and the seventh in the last eight quarters. Ahead of Wednesday's statement, traders put the chance of a rate increase at 95 per cent, according to CME Group.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who took over as head of the central bank earlier this year, is scheduled to hold a press conference at 2:30 pm EDT (1830 GMT) to elaborate on the policy statement and the latest two-day meeting.

NEW PROJECTIONS

The Fed's latest projections show the economy continuing at a steady pace through 2019, with gross domestic product growth seen at 2.5 per cent next year before it slows to 2.0 per cent in 2020 and to 1.8 per cent in 2021, as the impact of the recent tax cuts and government spending fade.

Inflation was forecast to hover near 2 per cent over the next three years, while the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.5 per cent next year and remain there through 2020 before rising slightly in 2021.

The jobless rate is currently 3.9 per cent.

With risks described as roughly balanced, the statement left the Fed on a steady course for the next year.

Risks to the current run of economic growth, such as the threat of a damaging round of global tariffs increases, were largely set aside.

There were no dissents in the Fed's policy statement.

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First Published: Sep 26 2018 | 11:36 PM IST

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