US recession imminent and inevitable? Not if the Fed can thread the needle

"I still think we're going to navigate through without a recession. But obviously it's going to be very, very tight because risks are very high," Moody's Mark Zandi said

To hear some of the chatter in financial markets and corporate America’s C-suites, a US recession is imminent and inevitable.

Not necessarily so. 

While the danger of a downturn has risen as growth has slowed, most economists argue a contraction is unlikely in the immediate future, given the continued strength of the jobs market and the more than $2 trillion in excess cash on household balance sheets.  

It’s next year they’re more worried about, as the Federal Reserve’s continuing interest-rate hikes increasingly bite and decades-high inflation eats into that cash surplus.

But even then, an economic decline isn’t a slam