What the prediction markets tell us about the German election

Voters do not directly elect but determine party shares making prediction markets useful

Germany will go to the polls on September 24 to elect its next Parliament – a vote which will determine whether Angela Merkel will hold onto her post as chancellor.

The election isn’t causing quite the same anxiety as unfolded in France ahead of the presidential contest there earlier this year, but it is nevertheless very significant. Merkel has led Germany for more than a decade. During that time she has come to occupy a central position among European leaders.

If she is replaced, it will shape the EU’s refugee policy, the ongoing Southern European debt crisis and possibly Brexit negotiations. And