Xi's chances of securing third term looks bleak over economic downturn

Doubts have started emerging over Xi Jinping securing a third term in the autumn of 2022 over loud voices of dissension within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) due to economic downturn, country's foreign policy regarding Russia and breaking the established system of leadership succession.

According to CCP sources, some of the retired senior leaders - "formers" of the Communist Party has recently expressed opposition to Xi's desire to break the established system of leadership succession.

They also allege Xi's extreme left-hand turn in the country's economy has slowed down at a "shocking rate". The faction opposed to his leadership has also questioned Xi's "state-to-people retreat" and economic policies centred on State-owned enterprises led to the economic downturn in China.

 

According to a Wall Street Journal report, former Premier Zhu Rongji of the State Council, have recently voiced their opposition to Xi Jinping's move to break the established party system of leadership succession and plan to be re-elected this year.

Under the pressure of China's economic slowdown, the left-leaning economic reforms led by President Xi Jinping needs to be postponed because of the opposition within the party. The report quoted internal sources of the CCP comprising some veterans or retired leaders who still have political voice and influence in the party.

The article, titled "Xi Jinping's reversal of economic reforms reveals cracks in his power," noted that last year, Chinese President Xi Jinping seemed invincible. Now, his actions to steer China away from capitalism and the West have plunged the Chinese economy into uncertainty and exposed subtle cracks in his grip on the regime.

The article also provides analysis on some sensitive economic topics such as technology giants, real estate, and private enterprises, stating - "after Xi Jinping tightened control over a series of private enterprises ranging from technology giants to real estate developers, China's economy at the end of last year. The sharp slowdown in growth has alarmed Chinese policymakers. At the same time, China'sstrict containment lockdown measures have been ramped up again as COVID-19 cases surge, denting consumer spending and factory output, an important part of a crisis response strategy."

This article also specifically pointed out that the CCP will bring incalculable losses to itself because of its friendship with Russia. "Furthermore, just weeks before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China reached an agreement with Russia in early February. The agreement widened the gulf between China and the West, underscoring China's implementation in domestic and foreign policy," the article said.

The article also analyzes the apparent economic downturn in mainland China and believes that the current route needs to be corrected. China's economic growth plummeted to 4 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year, from 18.3 per cent at the start of the year, making officials particularly uneasy.

Officials are now talking about policy correction to try to mitigate some of the effects of Xi Jinping's policies.

It is reported that Zhu Rongji, who has always had an authoritative voice on finance and the economy, also privately questioned Xi Jinping's "national advance and private retreat" and the "stunning slowdown" of economic policies centred on state-owned enterprises.

The article also pointed out that the theory of "common prosperity" is worth scrutinizing. In 2021, Xi Jinping put forward a call for "common prosperity", but it seems that "the high and the low" are hardly mentioned now. The article also quoted people familiar with the matter as revealing that at a closed-door meeting to set economic policy guidelines in December 2021, Xi Jinping implicitly acknowledged that with slowing economic growth, the national treasury is empty and it is difficult to redistribute wealth, telling officials, "Common prosperity is about "Make the pie bigger first" and distribute it equally."

But after all, the problems in these aspects seem to be small shortcomings, which can be "corrected" in future work. However, some elders are said to be unhappy with Xi Jinping's re-election, believing that it has undermined the tenure system.

So, in this case, it seems that Xi Jinping's re-election looks like a real challenge.