It has been an eventful calendar year 2012 for the equity markets across the globe. In the Indian context, the Nifty gained 25.8 per cent from close of trade on 30 December, 2011 till 28 December, 2012.
The returns for the Indian bourses during this period are higher as compared to some of the global peers like Hang Seng (up 22.96 per cent), Nikkei (up 22.94 per cent) and Taiwan Weighted (up 6.3 per cent), Nasdaq Composite (14.62 per cent), CAC 40 (up 15.25 per cent) and S&P 500 (up 12.76 per cent).
Foreign institutional investors have pumped in a net $24 billion (Rs 127,480 crore) so far in 2012, data shows. This is their second highest investment in India since 1992, with only 2010 witnessing a staggering $29 billion (Rs 133,049 crore) since they set foot on Indian shores.
The BSE’s market capitalisation (m-cap) surged from Rs 5,338,497 crore as on 30 December 2011 to Rs 6,902,502 crore as on 28 December 2012, translating into a rise of Rs 1,564,005 crore, or around 29 per cent.
While on one hand, the gush of liquidity right through 2012 kept the Indian markets in high spirits, macro-economic headwinds, policy logjam, statements from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), company specific events and the political upheaval kept the gains under check.
In terms of sectors, the BSE Banking, Realty, FMCG and Consumer Durables sectors were amongst the top performers – surging 57 per cent, 52 per cent, 47 per cent and 45 per cent, respectively during the above-mentioned period. The BSE IT index was the sole loser, slipping a marginal 1.1 per cent.
THE OTHER HALF
Investors of about 100 companies have lost around Rs 100,000 crore of market wealth during the current calendar year 2012, even though the benchmark indices recorded sharpest yearly rally in past three years.
As many as 93 stocks from the BSE-500 index have seen a market capitalisation (m-cap) erosion of Rs 94,762 crore in past one year to Rs 944,735 crore on December 27, 2012. These 93 companies, which account 15 per cent of total BSE m-cap, had m-cap of Rs 1,039,496 crore at the beginning of the year.
The negative news flow, lower-than-expected profit growth and margin pressure forced the lenders of few companies to offloaded pledge shares after the promoters failed to repay loans are among the few reasons for these stocks to report negative returns.
Among individual stocks, Kingfisher Airlines, Indraprastha Gas, Zlyog Systems, Opto Circuits, BEML, Geodesic, Deccan Chronicle Holdings, Opto Circuits and Ruchi Soya Industries have declined by more than 30 per cent each. Infosys, Bharti Airtel, BHEL, NTPC, Wipro, Hero MotoCorp and ONGC that form a part of the Sensex have dropped between 1 – 16 per cent.
Shares in Kemrock Industries, a Gujarat-based company which makes plastics products, have fallen 84% over the past one year. The decline occurred after the firm told regulators in July that controlling shareholders had pledged more shares for loans. Total holdings of the promoters have declined to 11.51% in September 2012 from 27.07% at the end of June 2012 quarter.
BEML, the public sector undertaking (PSU) company, has dipped 39 per cent to Rs 280 from Rs 455 after former army Chief General V K Singh said he was offered a bribe of Rs 14 crore to clear sub-standard Tatra trucks.
Hindustan Copper, other PSU company has seen its market price erosion by 26% to Rs 137 post offer-for-sale (OFS). The government fixed the base price at Rs.155 a share, at a steep over 40 per cent discount to the pre-issue ruling price.
Infosys, the worst hit among frontline information technology shares, has declined 16% in 2012 on the back of a slower-than- expected growth outlook.
| WINNERS | Dec 28,2012 | %chg* |
| CCL International | 142.30 | 806.4 |
| Wockhardt | 1544.95 | 459.7 |
| Tuni Textile Mills | 161.60 | 342.7 |
| JK Lakshmi Cement | 162.35 | 337.6 |
| Advanta India | 965.70 | 314.4 |
| Den Network | 197.65 | 309.6 |
| Siti Cable Network | 23.90 | 299.0 |
| United Spirits | 1899.05 | 286.7 |
| Vakrangee Software | 59.70 | 267.6 |
| JK Cement | 357.00 | 256.8 |
| LAGGARDS | ||
| Glodyne Technoserve | 25.10 | -89.5 |
| Deccan Chronicl | 5.55 | -84.7 |
| Kemrock Ind & Exports | 81.65 | -84.2 |
| Shree Global Tradefin | 37.85 | -80.4 |
| Zylog Systems | 60.20 | -69.9 |
| Tulip Telecom | 33.95 | -66.9 |
| GTL Infrastructure | 3.99 | -55.6 |
| Ybrant Digital | 68.00 | -48.0 |
| S Kumars Nationwide | 12.65 | -46.4 |
| Geodesic | 23.25 | -44.7 |
|
Share price on the BSE in Rs *Change over December 30, 2011 Data complied by BS Research | ||
STOCK PICKS
Most experts believe that the next calendar year, 2013, does hold promise with the equity segment witnessing an increased retail participation, which in turn, may push the Sensex to new highs in the coming year.
“We expect significant upside in all global markets once US issue is resolved with huge upside in US, European and Asian markets. Indian markets have seen inflows at the start of this year and have consistently been on the upside. Going ahead we expect, FIIs interest to stay in Indian markets,” said Gaurang Shah, assistant vice-president, Geojit BNP Paribas.
So, what should you be buying then? Which stocks and sectors hold promise for 2013? Do the stocks that lost ground in 2012 offer any hope in the next calendar year?
Smart Investor team spoke to a host of analysts across leading research houses and brokerages across the country for their stock recommendations for the next calendar year.
