Agri futures shrug off bearish sentiment

Agri commodity futures today shrugged off apprehensions of a bearish beginning to the week after last week's crash. A majority of the agri commodities closed on a positive note today with experts attributing the rally to unchanged fundamentals.

To begin with, agri futures showed weakness which was later followed by recovery. According to commodity analysts, the week ahead should see firm sentiments returning. 

COMEBACK April futures of agri commodities (in Rs/quintal)
Commodity	Saturday	Monday
Chana	2851	2966
Chilli	4474	4485
Guarseed	2014	2043
Jeera	9655	9805
Maize	836	837
Pepper	15383	15394
Sugar M	1556	1569
Soy Bean	2153	2203
Turmeric	3318	3339
Ref Soy Oil	664	675
Barley	1061	1084
Source: NCDEX

Grains
The grains segment showed an upward rally with guarseed, barley and maize closing on higher levels. Maize futures traded weak with bird flu resurfacing in West Bengal.

However, the contract managed to close marginally up against last week's close. Guarseed is witnessing good export orders and analysts expect that Rs 2,200 a quintal could be the target.

Chana
Chana, the only trading pulses variety on commodity exchanges, moved over Rs 100 a quintal to end at Rs 2,966 a quintal on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX).

The commodity's fundamentals signal firm sentiments with crop size falling to below 4.7 million tonnes as against pre-sowing estimates of 5.8 million tonnes. The crop size in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh is reportedly low.

According to commodity analysts, farmers in Madhya Pradesh might not liquidate their stocks below Rs 2,900 a quintal in mandis. They added that futures can scale up to Rs 3,200 a quintal.

Spices
This segment, including chilli, turmeric, jeera and pepper, closed on the higher side. In the case of pepper, sellers are absent from the market and export demand is playing a key role.

In jeera, selling pressure was anticipated today but adverse weather conditions in Gujarat and Rajasthan (major jeera producer states) helped the futures rise. Unjha, the main delivery centre, reported a surge in arrival at 18,000 bags (each of 55 kg) and almost an equal offtake in the market.

Market sources said that stockists in the jeera market have stepped up their activities. Arrival pressure could rein in chilli prices. Guntur reported an arrival of over 100,000 bags (each of 40 kg) today.

However, the April contract closed Rs 10 up at Rs 4,485 a quintal. Turmeric firmed up at Rs 3,339 a quintal and market analysts said that it could try to break the resistance level of Rs 3,500 a quintal.

Refined soy oil
The oil complex, too, traded firm. The April futures of soy oil rose by Rs 11 per 10 kg to close at Rs 675. It slipped from Rs 700 per 10 kg last week.

Soybean and sugar
Soybean futures crossed the resistance of Rs 2,200 a quintal to close at Rs 2,203, up Rs 50 a quintal. Similarly, Sugar M Grade gained Rs 13 a quintal at Rs 1,569.