All's well that ends well for kharif crops

MONSOON WATCH

The 2005 monsoon season is virtually over. It has withdrawn from most of the north-west India and is likely to retreat from some more areas in the next few days.

Significantly, the total monsoon rainfall in the four-month season has turned out to be close to 100 per cent normal, against 87 per cent last year. Equally significant is the fact that after several years of erroneous predictions, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been proved correct this year in predicting a normal monsoon.

It had projected the total rainfall to be 98 per cent normal with a model error of plus or minus five per cent.

However, the progress of the monsoon, after its onset over Kerala on June 5, merely four days behind schedule, had not been too smooth. It almost remained stuck there till June 16 and reached most other parts of the country only about two weeks behind the normal time.

It became vigorous only around the last week of June to advance rapidly and cover the whole country by June 30, almost two weeks ahead of the normal schedule.

There was another prolonged break in the monsoon rainfall from the end of July to around August 21, causing concern about the fate of kharif crops, many of which were planted late. But it revived again and made up for the deficiency in the overall rainfall.

In the process, it played havoc in parts of Maharashtra, especially Mumbai, and Gujarat which received excessive rainfall, breaking many previous records.

From agriculture view-point, the distribution of the rainfall had not been too satisfactory. Several areas remained chronically rain-deficient almost throughout the season.

These include north-eastern hilly areas (including Nagaland, Mizoram, Manipur, Tripura, Assam and Meghalaya), Jharkhand, Bihar and western Rajasthan. Some other areas, on the other hand, received excessive rainfall, causing heavy flooding.

But all this is really not unusual and is very much a regular feature of the Indian monsoon. The overall outlook for kharif crops remains positive.

Till today, the monsoon has withdrawn from Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, New Delhi, Rajasthan, west Uttar Pradesh, west Madhya Pradesh and some parts of Uttaranchal.

It is likely to recede from the rest of north-west India in the coming days, says the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). As a result, most part of the north-west, north and central India is likely to experience dry weather in the next five days or so.

But a cyclonic circulation over the west-central Bay of Bengal has gained strength and is expected to become a low pressure area. It may, therefore, cause rainfall in coastal Andhra Pradesh, Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, interior Karnataka, north coastal Tamil Nadu, Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal and north-eastern states.

The area planted with paddy in the current kharif has risen by nearly 1.24 million hectares from last season's 34.2 million hectares to 35.5 million hectares. But the coverage under coarse cereals, barring maize, has been relatively lower this year.

The total area sown with coarse grains is estimated at 21.9 million hectares, against last season's 22.7 million hectares. However, the area under kharif maize has expanded marginally from 7.25 million hectares last year to 7.35 million hectares this year.

Cotton sowing is also relatively less this year though the output is expected to rise thanks to a good crop growth and lower incidence of pests. The area under pest-protected Bt cotton has increased to 1.25 million hectares. Of this, 5.2 lakh hectares are in Maharashtra, 0.5 lakh hectares in Punjab, 1.35 lakh in Madhya Pradesh, 2 lakh in Gujarat, 3.09 lakh in Andhra Pradesh and 0.45 lakh in other states.

More area has been planted with pulses in this kharif (11.14 million hectares) than in last season (10.9 million hectares). Coverage under tur or arhar, the major kharif pulse, has exceeded the normal in states like Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Orissa, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh. The total area under this crop is 3.78 million hectares, against last year's 3.6 million hectares.

The area sown under oilseeds lags behind last season's coverage so far. But some of the shortfall is expected to be made up as sunflower planting is still continuing in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka thanks to rains received in past one month.

The sowing of groundnut and soybean has been relatively less. The total area under kharif oilseeds till September 23 was estimated at 17.17 million hectares, against last season's 17.71 million hectares.

The overall normal monsoon rainfall has proved a boon for the country's water reservoirs, many of which were totally drained down before the beginning of this rainy season.

The total water stored in 76 major reservoirs was estimated on September 23 at 108.36 billion cubic metres (BCM), some 24.6 BCM more than last year's corresponding position of 83.78 BCM. The past 10 years' average storage for this date works out at 90.32 BCM.

The current storage, therefore, is 29 per cent higher than last year's and 20 per cent above past decade's average storage. This portends well for hydel power production as also for crops.