Imports of extra-long and short varieties to rise, as farmers prefer to sow the genetically modified seeds.
The introduction of genetically modified (Bt) cotton in 2002 helped push India to the rank of second-largest global producer. However, this has also led to a decline in output of premium quality cotton.
“Bt has really helped certain varieties (long staple) of cotton. But, the output of other varieties, including extra long staple (ELS) and short staple (SS), has declined over the years since farmers switched to the high-yielding Bt crop,” said A B Joshi, commissioner in the Union ministry of textiles.
Consequently, import of ELS cotton is estimated to increase to 1.7 million bales (170 kg each) in the current cotton year (October 2011-September 2012), a rise of nearly 90 per cent from the previous year. Total imports during the previous cotton year (October 2010-September 2011) were 900,000 bales, says the ministry.
Since the innovation of Bt, the output of SS, primarily used in hospitals for bandages and like purposes, consistently declined from 760,000 bales in 2003-04 to 400,000 bales in 2009-10. Since then, output has remained stagnant due to lack of farmers’ interest. Similarly, output of the ELS variety (used for special fabric manufacturing) plunged from 5.55 million bales in 2003-04 to 500,000 bales in 2009-10. Output has been stagnant for three years.
“It all depends upon demand and supply parameters. If the demand and, thereby, price of ELS and SS cotton increase, farmers would immediately switch from Bt long staple to grow more of these varieties,” Joshi added.
According to Dhiren Sheth, president of the Cotton Association of India, a premier traders’ body, the area under cultivation for SS cotton has suffered due to the incursion by Bt cotton.
Seasonal conditions during 2010-11 were, by and large, favourable and sowing rose by 800,000 hectares over the previous year, to reach 11.14 mha. Farmers benefited from the high prices in 2009-10. Since cotton fetched higher net returns compared to competing crops, farmers brought additional areas under cotton. Beside higher yields, farmers continued to reap benefits from the reduction in production cost owing to the advantage derived from the cultivation of cotton with Bollgard-II technology, which along with Bollgard-I now covers 90 per cent of the total sowing.
There has been a surge in production in recent years due to the rapid expansion of area under Bt cotton. This was maintained in 2010-11, when production surged further to 32.5 million bales. This year, the Cotton Advisory Board under the ministry has forecast an output of 35.6 million bales.
M B Lal, a veteran trader, said, “There has been hardly any growth in the ELS and SS varieties, despite so much of innovation in long staple.”
Average yields showed remarkable improvement from 302 kg/ha in 2002-03 to about 500 kg/ha in 2011-12, due to work done by central and state government agencies and others under the Technology Mission on Cotton through transfer of techniques, nutrition management strategies and integrated pest management approaches, plus Bt technology. However, productivity is still much below the world average, mainly due to the lack of irrigation.
