Bull-bear tussle at 5300 level

F&O OUTLOOK

The BSE and NSE will have to cross the resistance levels of 18300-18500 and 5300-5400 respectively to ensure the return of strength on Dalal Street.

The markets have conceded early gains two days in a row, with both the Sensex (18,300) and Nifty (5,370) reacting from their resistance areas. The open interest in Nifty options indicates resistance at 5,300 and support at 5,200.

The 5,300 Call options are being traded by the players, including the FIIs, who have been writing 5,300 Calls when the Nifty trades above this level and covering their positions if the index falls below the 5,300 mark.

Despite 82,175 contracts of 5,300 Call options having been traded in the last three days, the open interest has increased by a mere 2,850 contracts. This shows that call writers have been nibbling at trades on an intra-day basis, rather than carrying trades overnight.

The FIIs traded 8.20 lakh Nifty contracts in the last five trading days and yet the Nifty futures open interest has declined during the period. Remember that FIIs account for nearly 70 per cent of the total open interest in Nifty futures.

The total open interest in Nifty February futures has reduced by 82,727 contracts despite trading volumes of 27.06 lakh contracts in five days.

Moreover, most Reliance group shares don't look encouraging and this is a negative sign for the indices.

The Nifty has an intra-day support at 5260 and 5225, while resistance is seen at 5295 and 5315. The Sensex is likely to remain range-bound between 18,000 and 18,300.