As a result, the total sugar output this year is expected to come down to 7 million tonnes as against 9.1 million tonnes last year (2007-08), while total area under sugarcane may come down to 950,000 hectares from 1.2 million hectares last year.
As a result, the prices of all sweeteners including sugar, jaggery and khandsari are likely to jump this year.
According to Prakash Naiknavare, chairman, Maharashtra State Federation of Co-operative Sugar Factories, the state is expecting a decline in cane output. The total cane output is expected to come down to 66.5 million tonnes from over 84 million tonnes last year.
In contrast, yield is set to improve marginally to 70 tonnes per hectare against 63 tonnes last year. Recovery is also set to decline marginally to 11.40 per cent from 11.44 per cent.
As of June 22, cane sowing in the state has declined by 30 per cent to 770,000 hectares, which is nearly half of the acreage during the same time last year. The target has been set at 1.8 million hectares.
Sugarcane acreage is being diverted to soybean, maize and cotton where inter-cropping is proving to be more lucrative. However, maize does not offer any inter-cropping advantage. But a low crop cycle of just 90-100 days for maize offers opportunity to sow three crops in the same area.
Sugar mills in the state are still holding payments to farmers because of low realisation from sugar sales and prices are still holding around the cost of production of around Rs 14.50-15 per kg. Again, sugarcane covers a 12-month crop cycle. Therefore, farmers are opting for soya-wheat or soya-cotton combination, which certainly offers better remuneration.
"Last year, Maharashtra paid Rs 811 per tonne for cane. In comparison, a soya-wheat or soya-cotton combination (through inter-cropping) is certainly a better bet with a minimum realisation of Rs 1,200 from one-tonne cane area," said Rajesh Agarwal, co-ordinator, Soyabean Processors Association (SOPA).
However, B J Maheshwari, company secretary, Dwarikesh Sugar, believes that 2007-08 was the last of a 3-year downward cycle for cane production, which may improve this year.
Again, cotton, wheat and soybean (though rainfed) are not as much dependent on irrigation as sugarcane.
