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| The market breadth was positive as the Bombay Stock Exchange & National Stock Exchange combined figures were 1747 : 871 and the capitalisation of the breadth on both the exchanges was Rs 4,541 crore : Rs 2,746 crore. This shows a buying momentum.
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| The nervousness in the undertone is apparent from the fact that the buyers lack conviction at higher levels.
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| The 1630 and 5130 levels on the Nifty and Sensex, respectively, are proving to a major short term hurdle which need to be surpassed convincingly.
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| The indices have shown a truncated intra-day movement which is a sign of concern. Historically, it has been observed that bull markets tend to seek directions after a narrow intraday trading range.
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| The markets can breakdown / breakout from these levels. What needs to be watched in the coming two sessions is whether the indices surpass the 1630 & 5135 on the upsides or fall below the 1574 and 4950 on downside.
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| The breakout, if any, needs to be accompanied by higher volumes and a very positive market breadth to be conclusive.
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| The price / volume action will be a deciding factor in the direction. The derivatives segment shows a buying momentum up to Tuesdays figures which is a positive sign as the retail segment seems to have continued buying at lower levels.
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| Should this support continue unabated and the overseas markets shrug off their bearishness, expect a revival in the sentiments.
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| The outlook for the session on Thursday is that of cautiousness as the approaching weekend will sober the mood somewhat and see the bulls going on a back foot.
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| Only strong buying momentum by institutional players will be able to prop sentiment. Energy and cement are seen likely leaders in terms of buying polarisation. Stock specific activity is likely to be seen in -
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| Bank of Baroda - This stock is making a new high and has shown a high relative strength. Should this stock close above the 198 levels, expect the scrip to move 3-5 per cent higher in the coming days. Buy in the cash and derivatives segment.
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| Hero Honda - This counter has made a new high in terms of closing and intra-day trade. As long as the stock trades above the 380 levels, expect a 3 per cent upmove in the coming two sessions. Buy in small lots in the cash and derivatives segment. Trade in small lots to protect capital.
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Vijay Bhambwani
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| CEO - BSPLindia.com
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| The author is a Mumbai based investment consultant and invites feedback on Vijay@BSPLindia.com or (022) 23438482 / 23400345.
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| SEBI Disclosure - the author has no exposure to any of the scrips mentioned above. |
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