A higher acreage coupled with recent rains in the major chana-growing regions and the easing of truckers’ strike are all set to ease the impact on the chana market in the country. Traders and commodity analysts said chana market will turn bearish as arrival picks up by the end of January.
Chana was among the essential commodities in which futures trading was banned by the government to control inflation as prices had inched closer to Rs 4,000 a quintal last season.
The truckers’ strike has restricted supply to the main consumption centres over the last week to which the futures market reacted by pushing up the price over the last week. The February contract of chana in the futures market closed at Rs 2,138 a quintal last weekend — the highest so far this year. However, spot market was relatively less affected.
Pradeep Jindal, joint secretary, Pulses Importers’ Association, said, “We expect that this year overall production of chana in the country will be around 5.8 million tonnes against the 5.2 million tonnes last year.
Since, there is a lacklustre demand in the market, we see the commodity to be bearish once arrival picks up over the next one month.”
In Delhi, 20 trucks (each containing 15-20 tonnes) were reported to have hit the D H Lawrence mandi which is far lower than the average arrival of 35-40 trucks. Traders said that in the coming days, arrival will turn normal, thereby putting brakes on the price surge, if any.
Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra are the major chana-producing states in the country. Presently, spot rates in Indore are in the range of Rs 2,100 - 2,120 per quintal whereas in Delhi the market is ruling at Rs 2,100-2,125 a quintal. Traders expect a decline of around Rs 50-60 a quintal next fortnight.
Suresh Agarwal, chairman, Madhya Pradesh Dal Udyog Mahasangha, said, “Crop is good this year and the bullish trend seems unlikely. Moreover, recent rains in the state has made crop prospect better for the year. I do not see prices of chana will go beyond Rs 2,200 a quintal. Within a fortnight, the produce will begin to arrive in Madhya Pradesh.” Reports suggest that Rajasthan too is likely to see showers in the coming few days.
Besides domestic production, imports from Australia, which trading sources put around 100,000 tonne, will further ease prices of chana in the country. “The import rates of chana from Australia have dropped to Rs $380 per tonne from $500 per tonne,” added Agarwal. Adding to this, Jindal said the Australian chana (coming from Mumbai ports to Delhi) will further suppress the market.
A commodity report from ShareKhan, stated: “With crop sowing higher by 8 per cent this year, chana production prospects are reported to be good. We maintain a bearish view in the medium term.” According to commodity analysts, the spot prices in Delhi and other major consumption centres can slip below Rs 2,000 a quintal upon crop arrivals and normal supply which got disrupted by truckers’ strike.
