The term El Niño refers to a large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction, linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. The occurrence of one during India's southwest monsoon (June-September) is associated with below-normal rain. And, hence, has a significant bearing on kharif crop production.
Between 2001 and 2010, there have been three years (2002, 2004 and 2009) when the rains were deficient, respectively by 19 per cent, 13 per cent and 23 per cent due to this. According to the latest update from India Meteorological Department (IMD), there is a 60 per cent probability of one this year. IMD feels El Niño could have an effect on August-September rains, while the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has stated an El Niño could develop as early as July. What needs to be seen is the intensity.
Kharif crops are dependent on monsoon rainfall. Pulses are largely grown on non-irrigated land and the water requirement is highest during July, August and September. Disturbances to distribution and amount of rainfall, particularly during August, has the sharpest impact on crop yields. IMD is forecasting below-normal rain in August and so, a possible impact on kharif pulses production. In the past decade, in the years an El Niño occurred, kharif pulses production fell 14, 23 and 27 per cent, respectively.
For the annual kharif coarse cereals production (bajra, maize, jowar, ragi, small millets) of 29.85 million tonnes, water requirements are the highest during the planting, early vegetative and grain formation stages, during the first half of July and the second half of August and September. This year's El Niño if in line with current forecasts, could adversely impact this output, too. In the past decade, in the years of an El Niño, kharif pulses production fell by 25, 18 and 17 per cent, respectively.
Sugarcane is a 12-18 month crop and well distributed monsoonal rainfall across the year and coverage during June-July and September is needed for high production. In the previous decade, this had fallen by three per cent and 18 per cent in 2002 and 2009, respectively, and rose one per cent in 2004. Considering the above-normal rainfall in 2013 and during March-April, sugarcane could remain shielded from moisture stress in a weak monsoon.
Soyabean is the main kharif oilseed crop and its sowing usually begins in mid-June; harvesting begins in September. If we look at the data of 2009, when we previously witnessed an El Niño, rains were near-normal in July but much lower in August and September. That affected the yield of most kharif crops, with that of oilseeds declining 17 per cent on a year.
For 2014, the acreage under soybean is expected to increase, as farmers had earlier got good returns for the produce. Additionally, soybean is a relatively weather-resilient crop. The important thing is that there should not be long intervals between rain events, as that might lead to depletion of sub-soil moisture and affect yields. If rainfall distribution is wide and most growing areas receive rain at regular intervals, even in a deficient monsoon, soybean production might see marginal adversities. July and August are the crucial months for crop development and rainfall patterns in these months will have a major impact on the crop. Even for the other key oilseed crop, groundnut, if the crops get rains at regular intervals, the output will be good even if the overall rainfall is below normal.
Sowing of cotton, the industrial crop, could gain in the coming season on expectation of a lower rainfall. Cotton acreage, particularly in south India, is likely to rise; it requires less water than a crop such as paddy. The government of Punjab has decided to offer a subsidy of Rs 4,000 an acre to motivate farmers to shift from the water-guzzling coarse rice variety (paddy) to cotton.
In the previous El Niño years of 2002, 2004 and 2009, agricultural output respectively declined 5.2 per cent and rose by 1.1 and 0.4 per cent. The difference in these rates during the various El Niño years shapes our view that not only the deficiency of monsoon but its distribution and coverage for each month from June to September will determine the eventual impact on this year's kharif output.
The author is head of commodity research, Phillip Commodities India
