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Congestion levels ahead

Technicals

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Vijay Bhambwani Mumbai
 The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex ended at 3721.65 (up 35.31 points) while the National Stock Exchange (NSE) S&P CNX Nifty 50 ended the day at 1168.75 (up 08.90 points).

 The market breadth was positive as the ratio of advances to declines on the two exchanges taken together stood at 1761: 816.

 Traded volume on the BSE was Rs 1,390 crore, while on the NSE it was more than twice that at Rs 3,353 crore.

 The capitalisation of the market breadth was highly positive as the numbers were Rs 4,248 crore: Rs 485 crore on the two bourses combined.

 The buying pattern today hints at purchasing frenzy by both the institutional and the retail players.

 That is indicative of underlying strength.

 The indices are inching towards their congestion levels at 1185/1190 and 3760 on the Nifty and the Sensex, respectively.

 The traded volumes have been below normal though the rally has been sharp.

 Traders need to watch the price / volumes combination for clues towards the short-term outlook.

 The outlook for Thursday is one of cautious optimism as the bulls seem to be regaining control of the markets after a brief correction.

 Buying is likely to be concentrated around index heavyweights and large-cap stocks because foreign institutional investor buying is likely to continue.

 Among stocks, Gujarat Ambuja Cements is likely to go into a low resistance zone above Rs 210 levels and is a market outperformer.

 Buy in the derivatives and cash segments in a firm market, especially above Rs 210 levels.

 I expect a 5 per cent appreciation in the near term.

 Reliance is likely to turn distinctly bullish above Rs 346 levels.

 The oscillators are supporting the rally and the market is likely to see this scrip leading the bull run from the front.

 Expect Rs 355 or higher in a conducive market. Buy in the cash and derivatives segment.

 Vijay Bhambwani

 CEO, BSPLindia.com

 The author is a Mumbai-based investment consultant and invites feedback at vijay@bsplindia.com.

 Sebi disclosure: The author has no exposure in any securities mentioned above.

 

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First Published: Jul 17 2003 | 12:00 AM IST

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