It is unlikely the retail price of chana (chickpeas) will rise much. In fact, it is expected to stay unchanged or even move downwards.
According to suppliers and manufacturers in the crop’s major growing regions of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan, retail prices have stagnated at around Rs 60-65 per kg, which is on the high side. This has led to both retail and bulk buyers (hotels and hostels, among others) staying away.
Chana is consumed as pulse or as flour, in the form of besan. “Big buyers are now preferring a multi-grain mix for flour and not pure besan or besan flour for consumption. Thus, the high price of chana dal is compensated by other mixes of relatively lower prices,” explained an observer.
So, with low retail consumption and modified consumption of flour users, there is a lot of stock in the market. And, output was robust last year, at 8.2 million tonnes (mt). Beside, both government and private agencies had imported large quantities. This year, too, anticipating demand, there was import. So, with this unused stock, even if the fourth and final advance estimate output is less than that of last year, at 7.5-7.8 mt, dealers say this is more than enough to meet demand. According to suppliers who buy directly from farmers, most growers have already offloaded stock in preparation for the ensuing kharif season, to buy seeds and fertilisers.
“In fact, most of them offloaded in a hurry in the mandis, since there were no buyers forthcoming at the rates flashed by commodity exchanges. A farmer can at best hold it for two-three days. He cannot put the rest of his itinerary at rest for just watching prices and hold on to the stock,” said a manufacturer and supplier of chana dal. “They also feel there is a great disconnect between the prices as reflected on the commodity exchanges and deals actually done bilaterally or in the retail market.”
Traders who just take a position in the commodity exchanges would like to speculate at high prices but a genuine manufacturer has to worry about offloading the inventory at the best prices to minimise other losses. On the commodity exchanges, since the end of last year, chana prices have moved up from Rs 3,338 a quintal to a high of Rs 4,350 a quintal currently. The price volatility had even prompted the the commodity markets regulator, the Forward Markets Commission, to impose a special margin on chana trades.
