The contingency plan drafted by the ministry of agriculture to counter possible lower farm output due to the deficient rainfall is set to cover only 16 per cent of the sowing area under the normal kharif season.
The draft proposes to cover 17.55 million hectares (ha) of sowing area in case the rainfall deficiency continues. During the last kharif sowing season, a total of 109.7 million ha covered various rainfed agri crops, including paddy, guar seed, soybean, bajra, jowar, urad, cowpea, moth and pea, to name a few.
While Maharashtra led the total area proposed to be covered under the plan with 4.46 million ha, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh stand at second and third places in terms of coverage area with 3.66 million ha and 3.18 million ha, respectively. Karnataka will cover 1.85 million ha, followed by Gujarat and Tamil Nadu with 872,000 ha and 838,000 ha, respectively.
The proposed coverage area assumes significance, as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has estimated 22 per cent deficiency of monsoon rains so far this season. As a consequence, the sowing of a majority of early sown crop has been affected badly.
D S Pai, head of the long-range forecasting division of the weather bureau, has forecast this year’s rainfall to remain at the lowest in three years. IMD has apparently revised its rainfall forecast downwards to 92 per cent from 96 per cent earlier.
“The contingency plan of the government, though laudable, may not be able to reverse the years of neglect of Indian agriculture,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at market research firm Care Research.
“The plan can probably take care of the interests of farmers who are affected but cannot substitute the shortfall of rainfall or water that is needed to augment production. We need to have a strong medium-term strategy to build up our irrigation potential and have better means of harnessing rain water. When the monsoon has been deficient, and the reservoir levels low, the impact on production cannot be eschewed,” Sabnavis added.
Despite Prime Minister Manmohan Singh betting big on the production of kharif crops, the agriculture ministry has cast a shadow on the harvest this season, saying: “We would miss last year’s record agri output this season.”
“The solution is in having this medium-term strategy of creating more water resources and channeling these to the farmlands. The MGNREGA (Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act) funds/labour should be better utilised for the same. Presently, I see the contingency plan only providing alternative income sources or credit waivers to affected farmers, but will not be able to make up for the loss of rainfall,” Sabnavis said.
