Contrasting pattern in north and south

MONSOON WATCH/ Fresh showers, reservoir levels augur well for rabi

The monsoon rainfall pattern during its three-month run so far and the current kharif crop scenario present an interesting contrast. The cumulative rainfall between June 1 and August 31 is as much as 16 per cent below normal in the north-east as well as north-west. But, leaving aside a few pockets, the agricultural scene is okay in both these regions.

On the other hand, the rainfall is three to four per cent above normal in the central India and south peninsula. But these regions, too, have pockets reporting poor crop cover.

On a whole, the country has got just six per cent below normal rainfall and the overall agricultural situation is fairly satisfactory. The total area brought under crop cover in this kharif so far is 93.2 million hectare, marginally more than 92.3 million hectare in the last kharif.

The medium range monsoon forecast has some more good news in store.

The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has noticed development of a fresh low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal, off Orissa-Andhra Pradesh coast, around September 12 which may induce a fresh spell of monsoon rains over north, central and peninsular India.

The low pressure is believed to have been caused by movement of the remnant of a low pressure system from south China sea into our region.

This is expected to strengthen the monsoon flow over India after around September 12. The ongoing rainy spell in several regions of the country, notably Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Maharashtra and Goa, is also likely to continue for the next two to three days.

The areas which have remained deficient right from the beginning of the monsoon season include the north-eastern hilly states of Nagaland, Mizoram, Manipur and Tripura (-21 per cent); Jharkhand (-34 per cent), west Rajasthan (-34 per cent), west Uttar Pradesh (-26 per cent) and coastal Andhra Pradesh (-21 per cent).

But, from the agriculture angle, there is not much cause for concern for areas such as north-eastern states, west Uttar Pradesh and coastal Andhra Pradesh, though for different reasons.

In the north-eastern states, marginal rainfall deficiency is, in fact, deemed good as it permits extensive crop sowing and reduces the risk of flood damage to the young seedlings.

In any case, this area is getting good showers since the past couple of weeks and the situation may improve further in the days to come.

Andhra Pradesh, too, is getting good rainfall since the revival of the monsoon last week. Though the rainfall deficiency in west Uttar Pradesh has been aggravating with time, the region has good irrigation facilities to support the crops.

Of course, lack of rains adds to costs incurred by the farmers in running pumpsets.

The real areas of concern are Jharkhand, where the government has officially declared a drought, and west Rajasthan from where the monsoon has already withdrawn.

Not only has the sowing been poor in these regions, the planted crops, too, are showing signs of moisture stress. Some more showers are badly needed to save the crops. Hopes now rest on the strengthening of the monsoon next Monday onwards.

To narrow down the analysis to the district level, it seems there are some 10 districts which have received little rainfall this season. These are: Jaintia Hills in Meghalaya (-80 per cent); Chhimtuipui in Mizoram (-61 per cent); Kushi Nagar (-71 per cent) and Sahuji Maharaj Nagar (-68 per cent) in east Uttar Pradesh; Auriya (-65 per cent) and Rampur (-67 per cent) in west Uttar Pradesh; Pithoragarh in Uttaranchal Pradesh (-77 per cent); Faridkot in Punjab (-90 per cent); Leh in Jammu and Kashmir (- 83 per cent) and Sri Ganga Nagar in Rajasthan (-79 per cent). But the agricultural scene is not bad in all of them. While some, such as Faridkot, Sri Ganga Nagar and Rampur, have large tracts under assured irrigation, a few others fall in the high rainfall category where even below normal rainfall is good enough for crops.

However, the water storage in the country's 76 major reservoirs is fairly high this year. The total storage was estimated on September 2 at 99.29 billion cubic meters (BCM).

This is 19 per cent higher than last year's corresponding position of 83.43 BCM and some 22 per cent more than past 10 year's average of 81.65 BCM. No reservoir has zero or negative storage now. Last year, at least two reservoirs had reported zero storage in the first week of September.

Indeed, the expected fresh monsoon rainfall spell from next week and the comfortable water availability in the dams is deemed a good sign for the next rabi crop season.

Much of the agricultural production in the rabi season usually comes from the irrigated areas.

While the availability of soil moisture due to late kharif season rains will facilitate rabi sowing, water in reservoirs will support the crops.