Traders have forecast India’s total cotton output at a record 36.3 million bales (170 kg each), surpassing the government’s estimate of 35.5 million bales on extended period of sowing this season.
The apex representative body of traders, the Cotton Association of India (CAI), estimated India’s cotton crop size at 36.38 million bales for the 2011-12 season, against 33.23 million bales in the previous year. This year the crop is likely to surpass the acreage benchmark of 12 million hectares, a 10 per cent rise from the last year. CAI issued the forecast base on survey conducted by various traders, farmers and exporters by field supervisions.
In July, the Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) under the chairmanship of A B Joshi, textile Commissioner, had forecast India’s cotton output to set a new record this year due to an increase in sowing following the late revival in monsoon in major producing zones. The total production is forecast at 35.5 million bales for the cotton year 2011-12 (October-September), as compared to 32.5 million bales in the comparative period last year.
Joshi also forecast overall sowing to rise nearly 10 per cent to a record 12.1 million hectares (ha) this year, due to farmers’ speedy migration to cotton from less remunerative crops such as oilseeds and pulses. During the last season, the total area under cotton was 11.1 million ha.
| BATTLE GROUND Trade balance sheet (traders vs govt), in lakh tonnes for 2011-12 | ||
| Government | Cotton Association | |
| SUPPLY | ||
| Opening stock | 47.50 | 56.75 |
| Crop | 355.00 | 363.75 |
| Imports | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| Total | 407.50 | 425.50 |
| DEMAND | ||
| Mill consumption | 240.00 | 230.00 |
| Small scale units | 24.00 | 21.00 |
| Non-mill consumption | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| Exports | 70.00 | 70.00 |
| Total demand | 351.00 | 338.00 |
| Closing stock | 26.50 | 87.50 |
Meanwhile, the textile ministry has extended its export forecast for the current cotton year to seven million bales from the earlier restricted quota of 6.5 million bales. Consequently, the total closing stocks’ estimate is 4.75 million bales for 2010-11, as against the previous forecast of 5.25 million bales. Total export is likely to remain unchanged at seven million bales during the ensuing season of 2011-12. Joshi says they have raised the domestic mill consumption estimate to 26.4 million bales for the next season, as compared to 23.6 million bales during the current season.
Consequently, availability of cotton for 2011-12 is forecast at 40.75 million bales, which includes 0.5 million bales of import. Against that, total consumption is estimated at 35.1 million bales, resulting in an opening stock of 5.65 million bales for 2012-13.
CAI, for the year 2011-12, estimated the total cotton supply at 42.55 million bales while the domestic consumption is estimated at 26.8 million bales, thus leaving an available surplus of 15.75 million bales. The cotton crop looks promising for the coming season. The monsoon has been, by and large, normal throughout the cotton belt thereby pushing up the possibility of better yields.
Looking to the bumper crop ahead, CAI urged the government to extend the open general license (OGL) status for exports of cotton without any restrictions into the new season at the earliest in order to ensure continuity.
