The South India Cotton Association has indicated that production during the 2010-11 crop year (October-September) will amount to just 308 lakh bales, as against the Cotton Advisory Board's upbeat estimate of 325.48 lakh bales weighing 170 kg each.
The board had formulated its estimates last August.
SICA said agro-climatic conditions in different cotton-producing states had changed the production scenario to a considerable extent.
Furthermore, the government's export policy also had an impact on plantation activities, which in turn affected the supply and stock position across the country, SICA Secretary K N Vishwanathan said.
According to SICA's estimates, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan will produce 44 lakh bales, Gujarat 105 lakh bales, Maharashtra 70 lakh bales, Madhya Pradesh 16 lakh bales, Andhra Pradesh 55 lakh bales, Karnataka 9 lakh bales, Tamil Nadu 5 lakhs and other states four lakh bales in the ongoing cotton year, he said.
Arrivals at the all-India level have already crossed the 100 lakh bales-mark, Vishwanathan said, adding this was at the same level as the previous year.
