After crop damage due to waterlogging in major growing states, analysts have cut the soybean output forecast from a bumper to a normal crop this kharif season.
Output this year is likely to remain at 9.5-10.5 million tonnes, as compared to 9.5 mt last year. Earlier, traders had forecast a record 11.5-12 mt.
Soybean is a major rainfed kharif oilseed crop, grown largely in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra. The crop requires frequent rain but waterlogging during the maturing period hits germination. Soybean meets seven to eight per cent of India’s annual vegetable oil requirement of nearly 15 mt.
According to Rajesh Agrawal, spokesperson of the Indore-based The Soybean Processors Association of India (Sopa), about 15-20 per cent of the soybean crop has been damaged due to water logging. “A large area in western and central MP, along with parts of Maharashtra and Rajasthan, was submerged due to the latest spell of heavy downpour,” he said.
Satyanarayan Agarwal, president of the Central Organisation for Oil Industry & Trade (COOIT), said, “Still, total output will rise between five and seven per cent from last year, to 10-10.5 mt this year.” The sown area as on September 9 was 10.3 million hectares, a rise of 10.7 per cent as compared to last year.
The US department of agriculture has, however, maintained India’s output forecast at 9.8 mt, unchanged from last year. A Ruchi Soya spokesperson also maintained a production estimate of 10.5 mt.
Import demand remains strong in China and there are small increases in the European Union and Turkey. Exports are expected to remain strong in Brazil and Argentina, at 36.5 mt and 11.8 mt, an increase of 18 per cent and 39 per cent, respectively, as compared to last year. Shipments from the US, the third major producer, is expected to decline by eight per cent as compared to last year.
Spot prices at the Indore mandi moved between Rs 2,366 and 2,424 per quintal. The near-month futures on the NCDEX touched Rs 2,474 per qtl, a rise of Rs 13 from Rs 2,461 per qtl in the beginning, but then settled at Rs 2,411 per qtl.
