Monsoon, which accounts for four-fifths of India’s annual rains, reached the mainland in southern Kerala a day earlier than schedule, aiding timely sowing of rice, sugarcane, soybean and cotton crops.
Conditions are “favourable” for further advance of rains into interior and coastal Karnataka in the next 48 hours, the India Meteorological Department(IMD) said in a statement today. The rainy season typically begins on the first of June.
Monsoon rains are critical to the South-Asian nation, where farming accounts for as much as a fifth of the economy.
India’s expansion slowed in the December quarter after the weakest rainfall since 1972 last year damaged crops and pushed up sugar prices in New York to near a three-decade high.
“Sowing will gather pace with the on-schedule arrival of the monsoon,” said Veeresh Hiremath, an analyst with Karvy Comtrade in Hyderabad.
Adequate showers may help PM Manmohan Singh tame food inflation, which climbed near an 11-year high this year, and pare imports of food staples.
The country overtook China as the world’s biggest palm oil buyer and became the largest sugar importer after last year’s drought led to shortages.
The South-Asian nation has been a net buyer of sugar since the 2008-2009 season, after cane farmers switched to wheat and oilseeds.
Cane has been planted in 4.29 million hectares, five per cent more than a year-ago, the farm ministry said last week.
“Sugar acreage is sure to increase but overall production will depend on how the cane crop fares in Uttar Pradesh,” said Hiremath, referring to the nation’s biggest cane-growing state, that was among the worst affected by dry weather last year.
Cyclone
Tropical cyclone Laila, which lashed the South-Indian coast on May 20, stalled the progress of the monsoon after it arrived over the eastern coast three days ahead of schedule on May 17. The weather office on May 14 predicted rains will set over Kerala from May 30. Monsoon showers may advance to the coastal areas of south Konkan and Goa in the week ending June 10 and the heat wave in northern and central states may abate with pre-monsoon showers, the weather bureau said in today’s statement. Rains this year may be 98 per cent of the 50-year average, IMD said on April 23. The bureau, which failed to predict last year’s drought, considers rainfall to be normal if it is between 96 and 104 per cent of the long-range average.
