Cumulative rainfall 3 % below normal

The monsoon is likely to start withdrawing from the extreme western Rajasthan (Jaisalmer) region in three to four days. The normal date for the monsoon to recede from this region is September 1.

But elsewhere, the rainy season is not yet over as the meteorologists expect the current subdued monsoon phase to end after five to six days, especially in the peninsular and central India.

The other north-western states, barring Rajasthan, may also get some rain as the monsoon normally starts withdrawing from this region only around mid-September.

The cumulative monsoon rainfall in the whole country so far is three per cent below normal. Not much rains are expected in the bulk of the country, except north-east, till this weekend due to the current break in the monsoon.

National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) director Akhilesh Gupta said an anti-cyclone circulation had set in over the extreme western Rajasthan which was almost a sure signal of the impending withdrawal of the monsoon from the region in the next three to four days. In any case, this region has had no rainfall for past four weeks.

On the revival of the monsoon in other parts of the country, Gupta said this might happen after five to six days. "This time, the revival is expected to begin from the equatorial side and not from the Bay of Bengal as normal. This would bring rainfall in the peninsular and central India," he said.

The chances of rainfall in the north-western states of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh too were not totally ruled out.

"The normal date of withdrawal of the monsoon from this region is September 15 and this area usually gets some showers before that," he said.

The weather would be mainly dry in this region for the next three to four days as no build-up of western disturbance was in sight yet.Six of the country's total 36 meteorological sub-divisions have received below normal rainfall so far in this season. These include western Rajasthan, Bihar, Jharkhand, north-eastern hilly region, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

"situation may improve in the north-east and some southern coastal areas, but Rajasthan, Bihar and Jharkhand may not get more rains this season," Gupta said.