Deficient rains likely to impact soybean crop

Deficient rainfall in June-July may lead to a delay in soybean sowing and a consequent fall in 2005-06 (October-September) output, commodity analysts and industry watchers said on Thursday.

The Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation, which is based in Bangalore, today forecast deficient monsoon for the said period.

"Deficient rainfall during peak soybean sowing time of June and July can definitely lead to a delay in sowing and fall in production," said a soy industry analyst.

The final crop output may be even less than 2004-05 if the farmers are not able to sow soybean in time, he added.

In 2004-05, total soybean production in India was around 5.8 million tonne, down by 1 million tonne from 2003-04. Uneven rainfall, pest attacks and diseases were the main reasons for the fall in production.

Soybean is sown during June-July and harvested in October-November. Studies have shown that the best time for sowing soybean is from June 25 to July 15.

According to the Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation, the rainfall is likely to be below normal in June and July in central, south-central and southern India.

In June, rainfall is likely to be 11 per cent below normal in north India, 22 per cent below normal in west India, 6 per cent below normal in south India, 60 per cent below normal in central India and 40 per cent below normal in south-central India.

In July, the centre has predicted 21 per cent below normal rainfall in eastern India, 4 per cent below normal in southern India, 12 per cent below normal in central India and 4 per cent lower in south-central India.

"For a good soybean crop, the moisture content in the soil should be around 200-300 mm at the time of sowing. If there is any deficiency in the moisture content, the overall crop production will be affected," said S.M. Hussain, senior scientist at the city-based National Research Centre for Soybean.

Delayed sowing leads to problem in seed germination and the crop becomes prone to insect and disease attack, he added.

Analysts said that as soybean is primarily a rain-fed crop, rainfall distribution is of primary importance.

"If rains are not properly distributed throughout the life cycle of the crop, then production will be badly hit," said another soy industry source.

Hussain quoted an instance from last year when it rained heavily around mid-June, followed by an unusually long dry period of 15 days, which led to difficulty in seed germination.

"If this year also the rainfall distribution is erratic, then overall crop production might be badly hit," he added.

Rainfall distribution will now be the key to this year's crop, said Rajesh Agarwal, chairman, Soybean Processors Association.

"Farmers will be extra cautious if there is no rainfall during sowing and might even switch to some other crops," Agarwal said.

"A clear picture will only emerge the around third week of June," he added.

Sugar shortfall also presaged

India will face a shortfall in sugar output in 2005 due to adverse climate, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said in a recent report. The country will have to import the commodity to meet the deficit, the Rome-based think-tank said.

"Sugar prices strengthened in 2004 and early 2005, reflecting a shortfall in supplies," the report said adding that the trend will continue in 2005.

The supply shortfall indicates higher demand for sugar imports and unfavourable production prospects in India, the think-tank said.

It said initial trends suggest sugar supplies will shrink for the second consecutive year, largely due to unfavourable climatic conditions.

The report did not quantify the fall in sugar production and the resultant rise in prices.

However, the India Sugar Mills Association has estimated India's output in 2005-06 October-September season at 17.5 million tonne against the earlier projection of 12.5 million tonne as sugarcane farmers had received payments on time and the weather was "very conducive" for cultivation.

According to Association president, Rajshree Pathy, imports are likely to fall to 1.5 million tonne next season against an estimated two million tonne in 2004-05.

Sugar imports in India gather momentum during November-March when it is economical to process raw sugar along with crushing of cane. After the crushing, imports of raw sugar taper-off.

The think-tank has also cautioned India on a likely fall in cotton output.