Crop size of pulses, oilseeds and maize may be affected if there is a further delay in rains.
The delay in monsoon has raised concerns for several crops sown during this season. The sowing of crops like pulses, oilseeds and maize is already late by over 10 days now. Agriculture experts said that any further delay in rainfall is likely to impact the crop size. Farmers may also shift to short cycle crops like cotton and castor seeds.
| PINNING HOPE |
| * Monsoon rains delayed by over 10 days |
| * Sowing of oilseeds, maize and pulses delayed |
| * Situation seen under control till end of June |
| * If rains come after July 5, crop size would be affected |
| * Prices of pulses and maize up in the last fortnight |
| * Farmers likely to shift to other crops |
Most of the sowing in the country depends on the monsoon as over half of the cultivable land, due to lack of a proper irrigation system, is entirely rain-fed. The monsoon rains, which were supposed to enter Gujarat by June 15, are nowhere close whereas states such as Maharashtra and Karnataka are still devoid of rains.
As a result, over the last fortnight prices of pulses, which had stabilised by the beginning of April, have galloped by over Rs 200 to Rs 500 a quintal. Prices of pulses have stabilised since the beginning of April. Similarly, in case of maize, the prices have jumped by Rs 50 a quintal. Traders said in the near term, prices are expected to remain strong as monsoon schedule has gone haywire.
Madan Sabnavis, chief economist of the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, said, “Still all is not lost, provided stability remains there after sowing. However, any further delay in rainfall will definitely be a worry for the agricultural crops’ output. Already the sowing is delayed and so will be the harvest.”
He pointed out that even if rains come till the end of June or maximum by July 5, situation will remain in comfortable zone and optimistic view can be held upon. “But later, it will be worrisome as farmers could shift,” added Sabnavis.
The domestic pulses production has long been stagnant at around 14 million tonnes against the consumption of 18-19 million tonnes. Tur and Urad are the main varieties of pulses grown during the Kharif season. “Pulses prices have increased by around Rs 400 a quintal since June 1. If rains come after July 5, crop size will be affected,” said Suresh Agarwal, chairman of the Madhya Pradesh Dal Udyog Mahasangh.
The prices of Tur which were at Rs 3,850 a quintal in the beginning of this month are ruling at Rs 4,250 a quintal whereas those of Urad and Masur have increased by Rs 375 and Rs 200 to Rs 4,475 and Rs 3,100 a quintal, respectively. “Till rainfall comes, it is highly unlikely to see any slump in prices,” added Agarwal.
Maize is another crop whose sowing is delayed because of the delay of the onset of monsoon. In absence of rains in Karnataka (major contributor of the kharif season) and Maharashtra, maize market has jumped and is nearing the previous year’s highs when prices had almost touched Rs 1,000-a-quintal mark.
“The kharif maize crop normally starts hitting the market by 15 September, but fresh arrivals, it seems, will now start by mid of October,” said Vishal Majithia, managing director of the Mumbai-based starch producer, Sahyadri Starch.
Sowing of oilseeds, of which the domestic production is on the decline, is also delayed. Though there has not been any major impact on the prices of vegetable oils as country depends heavily on imports, industry experts say less production would mean more imports.
BV Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, said, “Oilseeds have a cycle of 105-120 days. Though monsoon is already delayed, sowing of oilseed is not taking place. If monsoon departs as per its schedule by September 15-30, the yield will be impacted.” He further added for a good oilseed production, rains should come by June 25, else there will be problem.
The country, on an average, imports vegetable oil worth Rs 20,000 crore every year. Last year, the country had imported 6.3 million tonnes of vegetable oil. “This year it is expected to go up to 8 million tonnes,” added Mehta. In case of further delay in sowing of oilseeds, farmers may shift to crops like cotton and castor, he said.
