While the rainfall paucity’s likely impact on kharif harvest is getting due attention, its implications for the hydrological balance, which will be relatively long-lasting and wide-ranging, are getting overlooked. The water storage in the country’s major reservoirs is 25 per cent below normal and the groundwater in most areas is unlikely to be adequately recharged.
The crop outlook has, of course, improved to an extent with the revival of the monsoon since August 13 in most parts of the country. The rainfall situation in the central belt, which has remained worrisome till now, is also likely to improve as widespread showers are predicted by the weather office for this region in the next few days.
The overall deficiency of cumulative monsoon rainfall has shrunk from 29 per cent on August 12 to 26 per cent on August 19. The situation has improved perceptibly in the entire Gangetic plains, northeast, and south peninsula, except its west coast.
Heavy to very heavy rainfall is predicted for the next two days in Orissa, Chhattisgarh, south Madhya Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra, Vidarbha, north Andhra Pradesh, Konkan, Goa and coastal Karnataka.
| WATER LEVEL ON AUGUST 20 (in billion cubic metres) Source: CWC | ||||
| River basin | This year | Last year |
Normal % departure
| |
|
(10-yr avg)
|
from normal
| |||
| Ganga | 5.46 | 12.31 | 9.34 | -41.50 |
| Indus | 5.13 | 12.96 | 9.50 | -46.20 |
| Narmada | 6.95 | 6.97 | 5.48 | 26.58 |
| Tapi | 2.26 | 2.80 | 4.30 | -47.57 |
| Mahi | 1.36 | 1.8 | 2.14 | -36.36 |
| Sabarmati | 0.18 | 0.24 | 0.26 | -29.77 |
| Kutch rivers | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.33 | -33.83 |
| Godavari | 2.33 | 3.94 | 0.5 | -64.08 |
| Krishna | 18.14 | 24.28 | 21.26 | -14.65 |
| Mahanadi & eastern rivers | 3.82 | 8.65 | 7.13 | -46.39 |
| Western rivers of South | 8.37 | 8.49 | 8.67 | -3.5 |
| Total | 59.06 | 88.25 | 79.25 | -25.97 |
However, the total water stock in 81 major reservoirs was only 59.6 billion cubic metres (BCM) on August 20, which is 33 per cent below last year’s 88.25 BCM and about 26 per cent below last 10 year’s average of 79.25 BCM.
Most river basins, barring that of Narmada and Cauvery, are reporting major water deficiencies. (see chart) Many key river basins, including those of Ganga, Indus, Tapi, Mahanadi, and Godavari, are having water deficiencies in excess of 40 per cent.
The groundwater level in also anticipated to decline in most areas under intensive agriculture because the farmers have been extracting more water than can possibly be replenished to save their crops from drought. Many dug wells are feared to run dry and deep tubewells may need further deepening by the end of the season.
This bodes ill not only for the availability of water for irrigation in post-monsoon period but also for sustaining hydel power production which will have cascading effect on several sectors of economy.
On the agricultural front, paddy sowing is still continuing in areas where rains came late. About 2.5 million hectares of additional area was brought under this crop between August 13 and 20. However, the total paddy coverage is still about 6.8 million hectares, or 20 per cent, below last year’s corresponding level.
The area shortfall under paddy is confined largely to eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. These areas have received copious rainfall since August 13 which may help improve the situation to some extent.
The coverage under most of the other crops, barring groundnut, is reported to be satisfactory. Groundnut acreage is down by about 1.2 million hectares (from last year’s 4.9 million hectares), mainly due to lower plantings in Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat owing to poor rainfall.
But, the coverage under soybean, the other major kharif oilseed, is marginally higher – 9.45 million hectares, against 9.41 million hectares last year.
Pulses have been planted on about 7.5 per cent larger acreage thanks to the high ruling prices and low rainfall which did not permit paddy planting in some areas. Tur (arhar), which has the highest demand and is currently selling at around Rs 100 a kg in urban areas, has been planted in 3.16 million hectares, up 11.5 per cent from past season’s 2.83 million hectares. Much of this increase is in Karnataka and Maharashtra.
Similarly, the area under cotton has expanded by about 12 per cent to over 9.5 million hectares largely due to more plantings in Gujarat and Maharashtra in anticipation of higher prices.
However, the government’s decision to freeze the minimum support price of cotton at the last year’s level has come as a disappointment for the cotton growers.
