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As arrivals fall, jeera (cumin seed) prices set to jump on the robust overseas demand. Trader sources further added that jeera production has been one of the lowest in past three years, which is also putting additional pressure on jeera prices.
In the spot markets at Unjha, jeera traded at around Rs 13,400-13,500 per quintal earlier this week. The prices have gained by over Rs 2,000 per quintal from Rs 11,000 per quintal.
Arrivals at key markets in Gujarat have reported constant decline since March 2013 from 79 tonnes to 23 tonnes in May and 13 tonnes in July.
“Arrivals are falling. We see prices to strengthen further as stock is less compared to last year due to reduced production,” said one of the jeera traders at Unjha.
According to a latest report by Emkay Research, rise in domestic and export demand ahead of continued festivals is likely to boost the prices of Jeera. “Export demand is expected to remain firm till mid of December as during Christmas season the buying remains subdued. Good export demand from Singapore, Europe, Dubai and Bangladesh are being reported at present.”
Notably, according to the data provided by the Spice Board of India, jeera production in the country is reported one of the lowest in past three years. For the year 2012-13, jeera production stood at 394,328 tonnes, which was 461,160 tonnes in 2011-12 and 403,744 tonnes in 2010-11.
Insiders informed that lower carry over stock is also adding fuel to the rising prices. “There is less carry over stock. Also, we have one of the lowest production years in past three years. So, prices are likely to remain firm,” said a trader source at Unjha.
Further, jeera exports is likely to remain high during this year on the back of stronger dollar against dollar and disruptions in the major global producers Syria and Turkey.
The data showed that India has exported a whopping 79,900 tons of Jeera in 2012-13 (Apr’12-Mar’13) which is higher by 78% than 45,000 Tons of FY 2011-12.
“Full scale civil war between the regime and the opposition has led to complete isolation of Syria from other countries in terms of beneficial trade. Expectation of lower production in Turkey and supply halt from Syria will make India the sole major exporter for Jeera,” the Emkay report noted.
However, other factors that can affect jeera prices include a possibility of NSEL’s releasing the stocks in coming days to clear off the payment dues to investors is likely to put some downside pressure on Jeera prices.
Further, above average monsoon in Gujarat may affect jeera quality, and thereby influence prices.
