Early rabi harvest worry on warmer winter

Winter rain has been largely poor; from Oct-November 23, it was 42% less than normal

The country's rabi crop faces the prospect of a warmer-than-usual winter. If it remains above normal during harvest, this could be a problem; presently, sowing is on.

On Thursday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had said minimum temperatures were likely to remain two or thre degrees Celsius above normal in many parts of the northwest and adjoining central India on many days during the next two weeks, till December 8-9. Till early next month, sowing would still be on in several parts of the country.

Winter rain has been largely poor; from October to November 23, it was 42 per cent less than normal. IMD is expected to soon issue its formal forecast for the winter season.

 

In its seasonal outlook for South Asia, it had said average temperatures over most of India during November to January could remain half to one degree Celsius above normal.

"It needs to be seen at what time there is any increase in temperature. If the warm climate sets in during harvesting, it won't have any impact on the final production but if it comes during the crop maturing stage, there might be some impact," said S Mahendra Dev, director, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research. More so for mustard and chana (chickpea).

"The duration of temperature increase also needs to monitored before arriving at any conclusion on its impact on the final harvest," Dev added.

Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at CARE Ratings, also said it was not a concern at the present. "Warm weather could become any concern only if temperatures rise abnormally during the harvest time or crop maturing stage," he said.

Till Friday, wheat, the biggest crop during rabi, had been planted on 12.71 million hectares, almost 15 per cent less than the normal area but 8.4 per cent more than the area covered during the same period last year. Last year, wheat sowing was around two mn hectares less than the previous year.

Food Corporation of India purchased around 24 million tonnes of wheat in 2016-17, four-five mt less than its target, leading the Centre to lower the import duty on wheat as prices in the domestic market flared. Traders are expected to import two to three mt of wheat this year.