The excessive monsoon rainfall towards the end of the kharif sowing season is likely to provide a better soil moisture for rabi sowing, which may translate into a higher output of the winter-sown crop this year, according to experts.
Total area under kharif oilseed sowing had marginally declined to 16.41 million hectares (ha) this year against 16.75 million ha in the last season due to a paucity of monsoon in the early part of the season in northern and eastern states. However, overall output is set to rise on improved yields due to late season rainfall.
According to an analysis by industry veteran Govindbhai Patel, managing partner of Dipak Enterprises, total oilseed output during the current kharif season is estimated at 14.08 million tonnes compared to 12.28 million tonnes last year — a rise of nearly 15 per cent this year.
In early September, excessive rainfalls were witnessed throughout India, especially in states like Gujarat and Punjab where the major crop grown is oilseed and wheat — the two major rabi crops which are now expected to benefit. As a consequence, experts have revised upwards their forecasts for kharif crop output.
The June-September monsoon season is important for India’s farm sector as it accounts for nearly 65 per cent of India’s total agricultural output. Rabi accounts for nearly 35 per cent of oilseeds, 100 per cent of India’s wheat output and nearly 15 per cent of rice production. The season, if it had become adverse, would have affected the entire food grain and edible oil availability in the country.
“The additional soil moisture due to the late rainfall is also good news for rabi crop farmers,” said Dorab Mistry, director of Godrej International, on the sidelines of ‘Globoil 2010’, an annual seminar held in Mumbai on Saturday.
This year, it is likely to remain favourable for rabi crop growers due to the extended rainfall in September, said Atul Chaturvedi, CEO of Adani Wilmar, a leading edible oil producer under the ‘Fortune’ brand name. After a deficient rainfall last year, the country received over four per cent excess rainfall this year, which is good news for policy-makers as nearly 60 per cent of all farmland in the country is rain-fed.
Also, the decreased kharif output last year had thrown up a major challenge on the inflation front.
In fact, food inflation continued to pose a threat for the government as it stayed in the 12-15 per cent range since last year.
Despite adverse climatic conditions in some parts of the world, especially in Russia, Brazil and Argentina, global oilseed production is forecast at 432 million tonnes in the 2010-2011 season — that’s little changed from a year earlier, according to Dinesh Shahra, managing director of Ruchi Soya Industries.
