Jeera or cumin seed prices seems to have turned bullish after remaining subdued for more than two months.
The traders are bullish on the future price trend as the export demand of the spice commodity from India is firm and expected to be strong amid uncertainty about Syrian crop's arrival in the international markets.
In the spot market at Unjha, jeera prices quoted in the range of Rs 13,500 to Rs 15,975 per quintal early this week.
The prices have jumped by at least 10 per cent from the lower levels of Rs 12,000 per quintal quoted two months back.
The fall was mainly due to a sharp drop in the foreign buyers as they awaited for arrivals from Syria and Turkey, the other major jeera growing countries.
However, the early production estimates showed a drop of about 10,000 tonnes in jeera production at Syria and Turkey. While jeera production in Syria is expected to be around 30,000 tonnes, that of Turkey would be around 15,000 tonnes.
"The fundamentals are hinting at a bullish trend in jeera prices. Export demand has improved against what was seen a couple of months back, but more than exports it is the domestic demand that is lifting prices upwards. Also, the low carryover stock is adding to the bullish trend in the prices," said Arvind Patel, a commodity expert and former president, Unjha APMC.
In the current season, the carry over stock of jeera was about 450,000 bags (a bag= 60kg), almost one-fourth of 1.6 million bags in a normal season.
The market sources believed that the carryover stock is expected to be almost nil in the next season mainly on account of the higher demand.
Currently, jeera exports are seen robust with a daily off take of about 200-300 tonnes. "China is the main buyer at present. The Syrian and Turkish crops were expected to hit the international markets in the current month. But due to lower production estimates there and quality concerns, the buyers are turning to India and we are seeing increased export enquiries," said Bhavesh Patel of BT Enterprise - an exporter from Unjha.
However, the arrivals at the Unjha market have dropped to around 6000-7000 bags per day against about 28,000 bags reported during the peak season in March-April. The prices too had shot up to Rs 18,000 per quintal in March.
Gujarat and Rajasthan are the key jeera growing regions with about 90 per cent share in India's total jeera production. The production in the current season is expected to remain at about 2.9 million bags or about 150,000 tonnes. India is the largest producer of jeera in the world and exports to the countries in Europe, China, Brazil, Japan and Malaysia.
