Global coffee output may dip 3.6 per cent to 7.41 million tonnes (mt) in the 2009-10 crop year on fall in production in Brazil and Africa, the International Coffee Organisation (ICO) said.
Adverse climatic conditions in few growing regions may also affect crop quality, it added.
Last year, world coffee output had stood at 7.69 mt, it said, adding that the estimate for this year is preliminary as data from Colombia and Vietnam is pending. “With factors such as a prolonged dry season and high levels of coffee berry borer infestation, there appears to be little possibility of an increase in global production,” ICO said in its latest market report.
Apart from Indonesia, there is no major increase in production of other exporting countries but the crop would be sufficient to offset supply problems, it noted.
It also said, “In these circumstances, world coffee supply could be tight in 2010 since opening stocks are at low levels and climatic factors may affect crop quality.”
According to ICO, production in Brazil, the world’s biggest coffee exporter, is reported to have fallen by more than 14 per cent to 2.37 mt from 2.76 mt in the year-ago period. Brazil is through with crop harvesting.
Fall in coffee output is also seen in a number of other countries of Africa (Cote d’Ivoire, Uganda and Tanzania), Asia (Papua New Guinea and Vietnam), Mexico and Central America (El Salvador and Mexico) and South America (Ecuador and Peru), it said.
Production of coffee in Africa is estimated to decline by 3.19 per cent to 886,000 tonnes in the current crop year from 915,000 tonnes in the same period last year, the ICO data showed.
In Vietnam, the world’s third largest coffee exporter, output is expected to fall marginally by 2.70 per cent to 1.08 mt from 1.11 mt, it said.
In case of Colombia, crop size in the first three months of the current year (October-September) is below last year’s level, it added.
However, production in Indonesia and India are expected to be higher in the current crop year. In Indonesia, the world’s fourth largest coffee exporter, output is pegged at 690,000 tonnes for 2009-10 season against 561,000 tonnes last year. Similarly, India’s output is estimated to be 289,000 tonnes against 262,000 tonnes in the review period, as per ICO data.
Coffee crop year varies in different countries. Brazil is through with harvesting in March, while the other major producers like Vietnam, Indonesia and India will complete in October, this year.
