IPC projects 262,900 tonnes this year, including 45,100 tonnes of white pepper, while a leading US-based trading firm estimates 259,500 tonnes. All the estimates indicate lower output this year as compared with the last couple of years.
According to IPC, total production in 2007 was 271,040 tonnes and 269,230 tonnes in 2006.
Various estimates indicate Vietnam will produce lower this year, too, with an output of 86,000-100,000 tonnes. As on 1st January, 2008, the carry over stock of Vietnam is 10,000 tonnes, taking the total supply to 96,000-110,000 tonnes.
The Indian production estimates varies from 40,000-50,000 tonnes. The average annual production of the country is 55,000 tonnes.
The production in India is set to fall will be below 50,000 tonnes mark due to various reasons, such as heavy summer shower, amaong others.
Brazil, where harvesting will begin by July, is estimated to produce 39,500 tonnes, while the Indonesian output figure is pegged at 26,000 tonnes. A section of Brazilian exporters, however, said that the production would be limited to 30,000 tonnes.
Malaysia is expected to produce 17,000 tonnes and all other producing countries like China, Sri Lanka, Cambodia, Thailand, Ecuador and Madagaskar put together would have a total output of 42,000 tonnes, taking the total annual global production at 260,000 tonnes.
Interestingly, all the producing nations will have lower output this time compared with 2006 and 2007, indicating a shortage of the spice during the latter half of current year.
