Global tin consumption this year is seen rising by over 7 per cent for the second successive year in 2005, hitting a record 321,000 tonnes, but supply is catching up, industry specialists Tin Technology said. |
In India, tin consumption was expected to witness sharp rise, driven in particular by applications in the packaging and transportation sector. |
"The petrogoods and chemicals manufacturers are expected to be the major industry segment consumers while changing lifestyle patterns are expected to drive demand at the consumer level", said industry sources. |
Demand from the oil transportation sector was expected to be driven by development of the oil marketing sector through the initiatives of new licensees in the oil marketing segment both in the private and public sector. |
However, in oil, applications would face competition from alternatives like pipelines. |
In the handling of industrial products and chemicals, demand was growing and an acceleration was expected owing to capacity expansion projects already announced. |
Tin Technology said recent data provided by consultants CRU showed that the stimulus to production provided by sharply higher prices has reduced the estimated supply shortfall this year to some 8,000 tonnes. |
World mine production of tin-in-concentrates is also expected to reach record levels of 276,000 tonnes this year, with about half of the total coming from small-scale producers in Indonesia, China and elsewhere. |
Next year, global usage is expected to rise by around 4-4.5 per cent, with a further deficit of around 6,000 tonnes seen reducing reported stocks to their lowest level in 25 years. |
London Metal Exchange (LME) tin prices have boomed this year, hitting $9,600 a tonne in the first half, the highest for 15-1/2 years. |
"After years of underperformance relative to other LME metals, tin consumption growth for the past two years has been consistently high and is set to continue in 2005," David Bishop, managing director of Tin Technology said. |
World consumption apparently rose by 14 per cent, or 20,000 tonnes, in the first half of 2004. |
Chinese offtake rose 19.6 per cent, Japanese usage was up 39.5 per cent, while US consumption gained 18.4 per cent year-on-year. |
"However, these big increases partly reflect stock building by consumers in response to concerns about rising prices and potential supply shortages," Tin Technology said. |
It said that the most important supply development this year had been the growth in production by independent small smelters in Indonesia, which are now estimated to be producing some 3,000 tonnes a month of refined metal. |
Reported commercial stocks at the end of June were some 23,500 tonnes, equivalent to less than four weeks' supply, which was the lowest since the late 1970s. |
Tin was untraded in the morning in Sydney and later indicated at $9,000/9,100 a tonne. |