Gold, crude to stay ranged

WEEKLY COMMODITIES OUTLOOK

Urad: Rally to continue. Following expectations of a lower crop in Maharashtra and imports coming in at a higher price, urad prices are likely to stay higher. "Imports are unlikely to pick up until mid-January," said a Mumbai-based trader.

According to IL&FS Investsmart Commodity's pulses weekly report, "Mandi arrivals in Maharashtra are not of good quality, following which good quality cargoes are selling at a premium. This is likely to keep prices further high following the festival demand."

Analysts expect Ncdex October urad contract to touch Rs 2,150 per 100 kg while the January and February futures may touch Rs 2,500 per 100 kg.

Gold: Range-bound ahead of the US non-farm payrolls data. After gaining substantially last week due to high inflation numbers, analysts do not expect the yellow metal to reign higher. The contract is likely to see profit-booking in early week.

Prices correction will be limited following support from the festive season demand from India. Overall, traders and analysts expect gold to remain range-bound as the US no-farm payrolls data is scheduled to be released on Friday.

According to a Refco daily note, "Energy prices should offer direction for gold with secondary direction coming from inverse action to the dollar."

"The speculative net long position for the (last) week rose marginally to 0.166 million level, a new record high. This rise in speculative net long position puts gold at a risk of large-scale profit booking towards the end of the year," said V Shivaramakrishnan, an analyst with Karvy Commodities.

Crude oil: Prices seen rangebound. However, analysts feel, with the hurricane season still on any news of new storms may help buyers take control of the market again.

In the long term, most market players expect crude oil prices to remain up as heating oil demand in the winter is likely to drive the demand for crude oil too.

According to the Refco note, "High energy prices will weigh on the US growth prospects through this year's heating season as well as swelling budget deficit gives gold an upward bias."

Soyoil: Up on festival season demand. Prices are seen up on expectation of post-shraadh festival season demand with Durga Puja, Navratri and Dussehra round the corner.

The prices also are getting support with the government hiking customs duty on non-edible crude palm oil to 100 per cent from earlier 20 per cent, a move welcomed by the edible oil sector. The non-edible CPO was finding its way into the edible oil sector via vanaspati but this five-fold duty hike is likely to curtail that mode.

Prices are also likely to get support with the National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (Nafed) likely to buy 2.5 lakh tonne of soybean (new crop) later this month.