Gold falls on profit booking

INTERNATIONAL REVIEW: BULLION

Gold tumbled in the Mumbai physical market on Friday following heavy profit booking at the top in the national as well as international trading centres.

But looking from a weekly perspective, gold is still going upward. The precious yellow metal lost Rs 105 to Rs 6,645 per 10 gm in Mumbai but gained Rs 35 on a weekly basis from Rs 6,610 on Monday.

Following in the footsteps of its partner, gold 99.9 lost Rs 100 on Friday but gained Rs 35 on a weekly basis at the close of Rs 6,685 per 10 gm on Friday.

The trendsetter Mumbai physical market passed the heat of the West, which it was feeling, on other futures and spot markets as well. Moving in tandem, spot gold on the NCDEX declined drastically to Rs 6,690 per 10 gm on Friday from Rs 6,804 on Monday.

On a weekly comparison, the women-favourite metal gained Rs 98 to Rs 6,690 per 10 gm on Friday. Overall weekly gain on international gold at NCDEX was Rs 63 per 10 gm, while Friday loss was Rs 123 to Rs 6,647 per 10 gm.

Despite losing Rs 130 on Friday, the overall impact on Ahmedabad gold on MCX was possitive, and the metal managed to show a gain of Rs 30 at Rs 6,680 on a weekly comparison.

In spite of a fall to a one-week low of $465 an ounce in New York, spot December gold on Friday was still poised to close above last week's close of $463.30. Gold prices were last at $465.10, down $5.30. The total decline was approximately 1.1 per cent on Friday. The current decline is mainly attributed to weakness in crude futures, which fell 3 per cent in recent dealings.

"Currently, 'pitrupaksha' is going on. In this period, no one celebrates anything that is good nor does anybody buy fresh ornaments. Therefore, it is a temporary correction phase we are passing through, which we expect to overcome very soon," said Prithviraj Kothari, director, Riddhi Siddhi Bullion and member of Mumbai Bullion Association.

"The technicalities are still going up therefore, the traders need not panic. After Dassera the gold season starts and continues till the first week of June. Therefore, we have umpteen opportunities to see gold going up," he said.

"Gold is overbought at Rs 6,775, as everybody is bullish on this metal. Therefore, the selling at this level was imminent," Kothari said, adding that traders in the international market project gold to touch $500 per ounce.

"If gold is going down at all, I suggest traders to buy at $460-62 in the international market and at Rs 6,500 in the domestic market," Kothari said.

Experts feel that despite almost doubling from its lows at the beginning of the millennium, gold is still historically cheap.

It is quite undervalued relative to most other assets. Other investment options including real estate, stocks, bonds and even some commodities are clearly fairly, fully or overvalued.

The fear of the central bank's interference was earlier playing a havoc on the gold prices, but it is making no impact on them today, as traders have their own reasons to either buy or sell the precious metal stocks.

Spot gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange declined on Friday on profit-taking after climbing for seven consecutive sessions, as international gold continued to fall from its record high level overnight.

Shanghai's benchmark bullion of 99.95 per cent purity ddeclined CNY1.85 to CNY120.59 per gram ($463.57 per troy ounce), based on Friday's closing exchange rate of CNY8.0910 against the US dollar.

Shanghai's 99.99 gold fell CNY1.50 to CNY120.83 per gram ($464.50 per troy ounce). The total volume also dropped to 1,252 kg from 2,042 kg on Thursday last.

As witnessed in the past, gold's near vertical gains have followed up by easing. This means that it is signalling a sharp correction, but most analysts say that economic uncertainties can still push the metal to fresh highs in the months ahead.