The bill for gold import fell again in 2016-17. Whether this would continue or not would depend on multiple factors. Demand is good, showed the March quarter. Whether adverse weather would spoil the rural demand story and how the coming goods and services tax (GST) would be implemented will decide the trend. Policy change is also possible from the government — there is talk of Aadhaar-based Know Your Customer checks being extended for jewellery buying.
The import bill at end-February, for the first 11 months of 2016-17, was $23.3 billion, for 558 tonnes of import. Another 80-85 tonnes is estimated