Despite delays and defaults in construction projects due to the ongoing global financial crisis, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) has estimated global copper consumption to rise 3.4 per cent in 2009.
The Portugal-based association of copper producers and consumers has arrived at the figure in its latest estimate, released today. Though it is higher than the 3 per cent growth estimated for 2008, the estimate is still significantly lower than the 4.1 per cent upsurge in 2007.
The drastic decline in refined copper consumption can be largely attributed to significantly lower growth in consumption in China and a decrease also in the EU-15 nations, Japan, and the United States. The growth is expected to be mainly supported by India, Egypt and the West Asian countries.
| CROSSING HURDLES Global copper forecast 2009 ('000 tonnes) | ||||
| 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | |
| Mine production | 14,983 | 15,441 | 15,720 | 17,406 |
| Refined production | 17,292 | 18,016 | 18,995 | 20,497 |
| Copper uses | 17,020 | 17,722 | 18,250 | 18,876 |
India consumes over one million tonnes of copper annually, of which the construction sector contributes 35 per cent.
This forecast by the ICSG is significant as refined copper consumption growth mirrors economic growth and hence, is the barometer of the global economic condition. ICSG’s Indian unit, International Copper Promotion Council (India) [ICPCI], has, however, forecast a slowdown in the consumption of the red metal in India.
“Commercial buildings, power projects and other large housing projects may be delayed due to the economic slowdown, which will have repercussions on copper demand too. Therefore, we are estimating 8-9 per cent consumption growth as against 15 per cent in the last three years,” said Ajit Advani, CEO of ICPCI.
According to the ICSG projections, a modest surplus of about 100,000 tonnes is seen for 2008. The calculated deficit of about 125,000 tonnes for the first half of 2008 is expected to be overshadowed by a 235,000-tonne surplus in the second half owing to seasonally weaker second-half consumption and a downturn in global markets.
Although supply continues to be constrained, consumption in the three leading regions — China, the European Union-15 nations, and the United States — continues to weaken.
Preliminary projections for 2009 indicate a surplus of around 275,000 tonnes (1.5 per cent of usage).
Global copper mine production in 2008 is expected to rise by only 1.8 per cent to 15.7 million tonnes, an increase of around 280,000 tonnes from 2007. Lower head grades, technical production problems, utility constraints, and labour unrest resulted in a lower capacity utilisation rate during 2007 and 2008.
According to the ICSG, in 2009, mine production is expected to increase by 1.7 million tonnes (an increase of 10.7 per cent) to 17.4 million tonnes owing to new mine developments and increased capacity utilisation.
World production of refined copper is projected to reach 18.4 million tonnes in 2008, an increase of about 345,000 tonnes or 1.9 per cent compared with that of 2007. Refined production in 2009 is estimated to increase by 4.3 per cent to 19.2 million tonnes.
Last year, world refined copper consumption increased by 4.1 per cent in 2007 to 17.7 million, driven by higher consumption in China, where net imports of refined copper rose by 144 per cent and revised apparent consumption grew by 27 per cent.
