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We believe 2014 could be an important year for many emerging markets, establishing trends that could play out through much of the remainder of the decade. A number of major emerging markets will see major elections in 2014-Indonesia, South Africa, Thailand and India in the first six months; Turkey, Brazil and Nigeria later. As the electoral cycle peaks, we believe administrations might feel more able to address barriers to long-term growth and retreat from populist measures. In these circumstances, ongoing strengths, in terms of solid economic growth potential, strong public and consumer finances, rich natural resources and favourable demographic trends that have helped emerging markets over the past several years, could gain new traction.
We believe many emerging markets, in addition to China, possess considerable economic growth potential. For example, Southeast Asia has been seeing a notable extension of growth and wealth away from traditional economic hubs, with previously underdeveloped regions starting to see significant catch-up growth. As is often the case, adverse short-term news flow in emerging markets typically creates attractive investment opportunities. As long-term fundamental investors, we do not make short-term predictions for share prices but believe longer-term developments that look likely to gain traction in 2014 could drive solid growth potential in emerging economies for years into the future.
Mark Mobius, Executive Chairman, Templeton Emerging Markets Group
