A dramatic improvement in the monsoon since the third week of July across the country has given the much-needed impetus to kharif crop sowing. While the area under paddy has crossed last year’s level by about 2 million hectares, oilseed sowing has also caught up with the last season’s position. However, the situation of coarse cereals, pulses and commercial crops such as cotton and sugarcane is still precarious.
With the monsoon still active and sowing apace, the Prime Minister’s economic advisory council’s projection of almost nil growth in the overall kharif output in the 2008-09 seems misplaced. That assessment was perhaps largely based on the rainfall scenario till the middle of July (when vast tracts in the interior peninsula and parts of central and western India were significantly rain-deficient) and did not take into account the subsequent improvement in rainfall as well as sowing.
| THE PICTURE SO FAR Area sown till August 7, 2008 (Lakh hectares) | ||
| Crop | This year | Last year |
| Rice | 251.10 | 234.60 |
| Jowar | 25.40 | 29.60 |
| Bajra | 64.10 | 76.10 |
| Maize | 61.70 | 68.70 |
| Total of coarse cereals | 164.40 | 187.90 |
| Groundnut | 45.50 | 47.20 |
| Soybean | 91.30 | 83.30 |
| Total of oilseeds | 155.70 | 155.80 |
| Arhar | 25.60 | 28.80 |
| Urad | 17.00 | 20.30 |
| Moong | 19.50 | 26.90 |
| Total of pulses | 78.40 | 93.20 |
| Cotton | 80.80 | 90.40 |
| Sugarcane | 44.10 | 53.00 |
| Jute | 7.40 | 8.30 |
| Source: Agriculture ministry | ||
Most parts of the country, especially the rain-starved tracts, have been witnessing an unabated spell of above-normal rainfall since July 25. Torrential showers have been pounding the southern region, Maharashtra, Gujarat and many parts of the country since August 9.August 12 witnessed this season’s maximum single-day rainfall of over 20 mm in the whole country.
The monsoon is expected to remain active in the next few days as well. The north-western region, in any case, has remained rain-surplus from the beginning of the monsoon season.
According to the sowing reports received by the agriculture ministry till August 7, the main kharif staple crop, paddy, had been planted on about 25.1 million hectares as against 23.4 million hectares till the same date last year. Paddy transplanting is still in progress in most parts, barring the north-western grain belt where the sowing is over.
However, most other food crops, including coarse cereals and pulses, as also commercial crops such as cotton, sugarcane and jute, are still trailing behind the last year’s corresponding levels. The lag is unlikely to be made up in some of them.
The shortfall of maize sowing is indeed worrisome, especially for the poultry and starch industries, which are already feeling the pinch of higher prices. The sowing of bajra, which could have served as a substitute, albeit a poor one, for maize in the poultry industry, has also been relatively low.
Cotton, though planted on about one million hectare lesser area, may not witness a major drop in output. This is partly because some of the area reduction is expected to be covered, thanks to the revival of the monsoon and partly because of the larger coverage under the pest-protected, better-yielding Bt cotton hybrids. Of around 8 million hectares planted so far, over 6.2 million hectares are under Bt cotton.
The oilseed crops, on the other hand, have staged a remarkable recovery after a poor start, with the area planted under them almost equalling the last year’s level of 15.5 million hectares. Major area gain has taken place in soyabean, which has already been planted on about 9.13 million hectares, against last year’s 8.3 million hectares, though most other oilseed crops, including groundnut, have suffered because of paucity of rains in July.
The prices of edible oils may soften in the months to come reflecting improved production prospects and, more so, a perceptible downturn in the global prices. The diversion of vegetable oils to biofuel is anticipated to come down due to fall in crude oil prices, improving export supplies of edible oils in the international market.
But, the sowing of pulses continues to be poor. With global supplies also being not too comfortable, their prices may tend to remain firm.
The water stock in the country’s 81 major reservoirs, though rising fast since the beginning of this month, is yet to attain satisfactory levels, especially in the south. The dams in the north are mostly adequately stocked.
The total storage in the dams as on August 8 was reckoned at 55.82 billion cubic metres (BCM), some 35 per cent below the last year’s corresponding level of 86.35 BCM and about 8 per cent below the long-period average of 61 BCM. The paucity is due wholly to about 33 BCM lower water stock in the southern dams. This bodes ill for irrigation as well as for hydel power production in the south, though, improvement in the situation on continued rains is not ruled out.
