Traders anticipate prices to fall as new arrivals start from November.
High arrivals with low demand from overseas buyers may pull down jeera or cumin seed prices by about 10-15 per cent from this month onwards, industry sources informed. Jeera arrivals at Unjha market hovered in the range of 5,000 - 7,000 bags (each bag weighing 60 kg) in recent days.
Trader sources expect jeera production to the tune of 3.5 million bags in 2011-12 but higher arrivals over the past two months has increased the possibility of a carryover stock to the tune of a million bags.
"This year arrivals have been high at about 12,000 to 13,000 bags in September against 4,000 to 5,000 bags seen in the same period last year. In absence of strong demand from domestic as well as international buyers, there are increased chances of about 1 million bags of carryover stock to be available in the next season," said a leading jeera exporter from Unjha.
In the spot market, Jeera (NCDEX quality) was quoted in the range of Rs 130 - 137 per kg at Unjha, lower by about Rs 30 per kg from Rs 157 per kg quoted three months back. The industry insiders anticipate a further drop in prices amid high production estimate and low demand.
"The sowing for rabi crop is expected to start soon, while the arrival of new jeera crop will start three months from now. Hence, with increased availability due to higher arrival and new crop hitting markets, we anticipate jeera prices to fall to about Rs 125 per kg from November onwards," said Arvind Patel, industry expert and former president, Unjha APMC.
Meanwhile, supplies from overseas jeera producers including Syria and Turkey is considered as a major determining factor for future price trend of the commodity. Jeera in the international markets is quoted in the range of USD 3,500 and USD 3,500 per ton (FOB). However, international demand has remained weak due to which, industry insiders anticipate a further correction in the prices.
According to recent reports from Spice Board of India exports of Jeera has fallen by 39 per cent from 15,700 tonnes in 2010 to 9,500 tonnes in 2011. "There may not be a sudden fall in the prices and we would not witness a value erosion of jeera, but at the same time we should not expect a bull-run in the near future either. The global factors clubbed with domestic supply availability and demand weakness would hamper pricing scenario in coming months," said Mukeshbhai Patel, a jeera exporter from Unjha.
In the past season, during March, jeera prices had shot up to Rs 18,000 per quintal (Rs 180 per kg) due to delayed arrival and poor quality of the seed following untimely rains last year.
However, prices moderated by July this year. Currently, arrivals are coming mainly from Rajasthan and Saurashtra in Gujarat, traders informed.
