The Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations has forecast India’s grain output to remain substantial higher because of favourable climatic condition. The agency estimates India’s overall cereal output this year to rise by 5.7 per cent to 228.6 million tonnes (mt).
While rice output is estimated to rise by over eight per cent to surpass the benchmark 100-mt mark and settle at a record 103 mt, the extended rainfall during October and November in the major growing states in the north has brightened wheat crop prospects for the rabi season.
According to the latest estimate by the ministry of agriculture, total rice output in the country may rise to 87.10 mt this kharif season as compared to 80.65 mt in the same season last year. Kharif crop contributes around 85 per cent of India’s rice output. Climatic condition is favourable for the rabi season also.
In September, India lifted the restriction on regular rice exports it had maintained for four years, initially authorising shipment of 2 mt of privately-owned rice, in addition to basmati rice. As a result, around 5 mt of world trade could be sourced from India next year, about 1.5 mt more than forecast for 2011.
Meanwhile, international rice prices have resumed an upward trend since June, reflecting first a tightening of the market and, subsequently, the announcement of a new price policy by Thailand, plus concerns about the effects of the Southeast Asia floods on export availability and shipping logistics. India’s relaxation of its export ban on regular rice has contributed to dampening the upward pressure on world prices in October.
FAO estimates, therefore, wheat output to rise by 4.3 per cent to settle at 84.3 mt in 2011, as compared to 80.8 mt in the previous year. Wheat is a 100 per cent rabi crop. Since, the extended rainfall set an adequate soil moisture for rabi season, the wheat output is estimated to remain bumper this year.
Maize and oilseeds output is expected to remain higher this year at two per cent and 5.1 per cent to 20.6 mt and 39.4 mt, respectively.
Sugar output is expected to increase over the 2011-12 marketing season, mostly driven by strong growth in cane output. Record sugarcane prices in 2009 encouraged farmers to plant additional areas to sugarcane and boost input use. Being a perennial crop, the bulk of the cane harvest should be realised this season.
After being the main driver of growth in world trade in 2009-10, India imported about 1 mt in 2010-11, down by 83 per cent from 2009-10 and, because of high production expected for the new season, the country is not anticipated to require any import in 2011-12.
India’s milk output is expected to witness a rise of 5 mt to 121.7 mt, FAO said. Rising domestic demand is the main engine stimulating the growth in the country, as India is largely absent from the international market for dairy products.
