Industry body Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) has estimated a sound recovery in sugarcane acreage area after the monsoon rainfall revived in the first week of August.
As per satellite images procured during August 2012, the sugarcane acreage for 2012-13 is estimated at 53.54 lakh hectares, about 2% higher than last year, ISMA said in a note. The Union Ministry of Agriculture, however, has estimated 52.88 lakh hectares in their first advance estimation on sugarcane acreage for the season 2012-13, 1.3% lower as compared to satellite survey report for the same period last year. Early July, cane area was estimated to decline by over 30% for the current harvesting year.
The views are against the common perception that the damage done due to the paucity of rainfalls in the beginning of the kharif sowing season would not be recovered with the restoration of monsoon showers about two months late.
In fact, Indranil Sen Gupta, India Economist of DSP Merrill Lynch had also estimated that the damage done for kharif sowing is difficult for recovery.
After successful completion of sugarcane and sugar production estimates for the season 2011-12 through satellite mapping, when actual production will be 262 lakh tonnes against the industry estimation of 260 lakh tonnes, this year again ISMA and National Federation for Co-operative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) are ready with their satellite mapping of sugarcane acreage report for the season 2012-13 commencing from October 1, 2012.
ISMA & NFCSF strategically chose June & August months for satellite image procurement so that different aspects right from sugarcane planting to grand growth period of cane can be covered. This sequence of image procurement also give an idea about cane planted for different months of the sowing season viz, for sub-tropical region, the area under autumn & late planted cane; while for tropical region, the area under adsali, pre-seasonal and suru season cane.
They have decided to procure satellite images atleast four times in a year that is during period like Mar- April, June-July, Aug- Sep and Dec-Jan, to keep an eye right from its germination till harvesting. For 2012-13 sugarcane acreage estimation, June & August, 2012 images has been procured, which has further been compared with last season Jan-Feb, 2012 images for better comparison and analysis.
Due to lower rainfall in 2012 in some parts of the country, sugarcane yield would be effected & also the cane being diverted for fodder. In certain districts of Maharashtra and Karnataka including Pune, Ahmednagar and Solapur in Maharashtra State and Belgaum in Karnataka have been worst effected. Through the satellite images an assessment of impact / diversion has been attempted by comparing the images of June and August, 2012. With the help of these images total water surface area on ground has also been assessed and compared
According to the satellite images of Maharashtra state which was procured in August, 2012, area under cane is 9.78 lakh hectares, including the adsali crop for 2013-14 harvesting season. It is accordingly estimated that sugarcane availability in Maharashtra during 2012-13 will be from 9.04 lakh hectares of total area. This is after considering cane diversion for fodder and also fresh adsali plantation for harvesting in 2013-14 season.
Karnataka acreage figures, as per the satellite image, are about 4.23 lakh hectares. In Belgaum, which is a major sugarcane growing district in north west Karnataka, reported lower rainfall in initial months of monsoon season, which will effected the yields. However, rains in latter part of August have partially revived the crop situation. In Tamil Nadu sugarcane acreage has shown a slight increase over last year
To substantiate and to provide ground truthing to the satellite mapping reports, a team of experts, visited the major sugarcane growing States to assess the crop situation on ground level.
To substantiate PAN INDIA acreage & to help individual mill acreage estimation for 2012-13, industry apex body, for the first time ever, has taken up 75 individual mills satellite surveys. Through this survey, industry body has created the digitized maps of command area of individual mills for helping mills on database creation on parameters like total mill command area size, total vegetation available, sugarcane acreage & its intensity and crop spatial distribution in the area. During mid- crushing season, it is also proposed to advise these mills about the total harvestable cane left in the fields, so that mills can plan their operational activities accordingly. Both ISMA & NFCSF have plans to take up more sugar mills for individual satellite mapping in the next sugar season. It is expected that the accuracy of PAN India estimation would be better with this.
ISMA & NFCSF will come up with their next second satellite report on harvestable cane crushed and balance left for crushing by Dec 2012- Jan 2013 for the sugar season 2012-13.
