It boils down to how India Inc delivers: Mobius

Q&A: Mark Mobius

He is the guru of emerging markets. Mark Mobius, who joined Templeton in 1987 had said at the start of 2007 that the outlook for India was very good. However, his exposure to India was not too high because he believed the market had run up and valuations were higher than those in other countries. In an interview with Business Standard, Mobius says the long-term trend for the Indian market is good and India has done better than other markets.

What do you make of the slowdown in the economy as indicated in the lower September IIP growth?

That there was an impending slowdown was already reflected by slowing real estate and auto sales. The interest rate policy of RBI as well as the appreciating rupee was effective in controlling the inflation rate. Thus we were not surprised by the reported IIP number.

Sales for the BSE 200 (ex-financials) in the September quarter have grown at about 12.6 per cent while the increase in the operating income has been more robust at 22 per cent. Do you believe the numbers are good enough?

By and large the numbers have been good. However, a large part of the surprises are coming as a result of foreign exchange movements and increasing levels of corporate merger and acquisition activity. In order for the markets to do well the earnings momentum would need to be sustained. However given the current environment this would require corporate India to further focus on increased productivity.

Do you believe that the lagged effects of high interest rates and an appreciating rupee are yet to be felt? Should the Reserve Bank of India step in to stop the rupee from appreciating further?

At current levels the rupee has appreciated significantly. This of course has put pressure on a number of companies on the one hand and has enhanced the competitiveness of others.

It is important to remember that the rupee has cushioned the impact of very high energy prices which are yet to be borne fully by the consumers. Therefore, a more calibrated approach to the rupee appreciation would allow corporate India to cope better.

How would you rate the Indian market as an investment destination vis-a-vis other emerging markets?

We see lots of opportunities in the Indian market and that is a very positive attribute compared to other markets which are quite narrow in scope.

Valuations reflect the market expectations of higher growth prospects. It all boils down to how corporate India delivers on improving growth and thus far it has not disappointed even under difficult circumstances.

Do you think the Indian market is expensive given that earnings growth is slowing down?

The longer term trend is still good but India has already done much better than other markets after the recent correction.

Is the flood of foreign money that's coming into India likely to continue?

As long as the government keeps an open mind on foreign investment and its usefulness in promoting growth, money would always be available.

The FII money is just as productive as the so-called FDI money simply because it entrusts the onus of growth projects on Indian entrepreneurs. To that extent, that should be even more welcome.

Which sectors would you bet on in the Indian market?

In India, most industries offer good growth potential. But, we look at companies rather than sectors.

What do make of Sebi's policies on participatory notes(PN)?

It is good to have investors registered. However, the processes and documentation must be efficient and simple.