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It's just short-term aberration: Pundits

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Veena VenugopalN Mahalakshmi Mumbai
These are the pit stops that refuel the race car, change tyres ........" says Samir Arora referring to the weakness seen in the market in the past few days.
 
This hedge fund manager and managing director of Helios Capital, agrees that the market is weak but does not quite believe it is the beginning of a reversal.
 
In the short term, however, market moguls are not very positive. "Markets are likely to further go down. Not necessarily tomorrow, but the outlook is negative for the short term. Investors are turning cautious," says Andrew Holland, executive vice-president, DSP Merrill Lynch
 
"It is very early to say if this a reversal. Long term for Indian markets of course is bullish. But given that foreign investors have a huge stake in our markets now, whenever their final sell-off happens it could be quite terrible.
 
It had become too easy to make money in the markets. I view this fall as a reminder that markets are markets after all and one could lose serious money, says Raamdeo Agrawal, managing director, Motilal Oswal.
 
Market experts opine that what is critical now is to ascertain what the future triggers for the market would be.
 
The rupee has depreciated against the yen and euro by 6 per cent, the dollar itself has fallen 6 per cent. Over and above US interest rates and oil prices, there is an added currency risk now to the markets (with regard to global funds flow), with the dollar weakening and the rupee weakening even more, according to Holland.
 
Corporate performance, which is one of the key drivers, is good. Currently, valuations are not obscene but stocks aren't cheap either.
 
The greater influence of the Left, issues on reservation, uncertainties on monsoon are some other sources of anxiety, says Aggarwal.
 
Chetan Sehgal, director-research, Templeton Emerging Markets group, attributes the current volatility to strong interlinkages between global bourses.
 
"There is a greater correlation among global markets on Tuesday. The presence of hedge funds across asset classes along with increased global movement of capital, has increased event-related volatility. Issuance of derivatives with no physical link to underlying assets has also contributed to increased volatility," he says.
 
Corrections in the Indian markets will also follow global trends. The Indian economy is doing well, results have been strong and the consumer confidence is strong and there is no reason to believe that a significant correction can happen in Indian in isolation.
 
In such an environment, India has to remain competitive in terms of opportunities and valuations and we will continue to receive flows, according to Samir Arora.
 
Market experts, while advising caution, are also of the view that these dips in the market could be used as buy opportunities. This is as good a time as any other to buy, says Sehgal. "Think bullish", advises Samir Arora.

 
 

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First Published: May 17 2006 | 12:00 AM IST

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