 "Jeera")
Expectation of fresh export demand together with tight supply situation has pushed jeera (cumin) prices to a five-year high. Industry feels that with fresh export demand coming in, prices are likely to touch new highs in the coming days.
Banking on high export demand since April, jeera prices had touched a record high of Rs 19,586 per quintal in physical markets on July 26, 2016. Currently, jeera prices ruling at Rs 18,240 per quintal. Historically in the last five years, the highest price registered was Rs 16,114 in March 2011.
"After reaching historical high, jeera prices had declined gradually thereafter July. But because of tight supply the fall was limited. Now, fresh export inquiries are coming in and domestic demand too is stable. This may push prices up. We believe that prices may rise by Rs 1,500-1,700 per quintal by end of November this year," said Vijay Joshi, owner of Vijay Exim from Unjha.
India exported jeera worth Rs 688.91 crore with total quantity of 44,023 tonnes in the first three months of FY17.The export is up by 71.7% compared to 25,930 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. India had exported about 94,352 tonnes of jeera, which is lower by 40% lower compared to previous year's exports of 156,000 tonnes.
Vietnam is the largest buyer of jeera accounting for exports worth Rs 297.27 crore followed by United Arab Emirates (UAE) and US, which imported jeera worth Rs 49.67 crore and Rs 46.37 crore respectively.
"In 2016, jeera prices have been in uptrend until July in spot and futures market due to good demand from the stockists and improving exports.Traders and stockists have received higher domestic demand for jeera due to good quality production this year after two years of lower production and quality issues on bad weather during harvest months," said Ritesh Kumar Sahu, analyst of agri commodities at Angel Commodities Broking Private Limited.
Jeera prices in the current financial year are at higher level due to good domestic demand as production during last two years was lower than the average production of the country.
Sahu said: "Consequently, the stock levels in the country were at lower levels when the arrivals start in March. As a result, spot prices of jeera in domestic market are at higher levels compared to five years of average prices."
Currently major part of jeera stocks are with the local aggregators and stockists who are expecting further surge in prices after the jeera crop from Turkey and Syria is used up by the end of October. Until that time, the domestic stocks will be diminishing and new season crop sowing will commence.
Currently daily arrival of jeera at the Unjha mandi of Gujarat is around 2,000-2,500 bags (a bag of 55 kg) and demand is about 7,000-8,000 bags.
According to Angel Commodities, during the next three months, the movement of prices will depend solely on export and domestic demand. The fresh crop will start arriving in the market only after March.
