The country’s total oilseed production this kharif harvesting season is likely to decline by four-five per cent season due to severe crop damage, especially of soybean, in major areas of Madhya Pradesh, India’s largest producing state. Against the first advanced estimate of 20.89 million tonnes (mt), given by the ministry of agriculture, the industry has pegged the total output at around 20 mt. The total oilseed output has stood at 20.85 mt last kharif season.
“We are certainly considering to lower the soybean crop estimates, though marginally, by 100,000-150,000 tonnes from the earlier estimates of 11.65 mt released on September 30, as the crop damage has been larger than expected,” said Rajesh Agrawal, spokesperson of the Soybean Processors Association of India (Sopa), an Indore-based trade body.
At major centres around Bhopal and Disa, soybean crop was severely affected due to waterlogging in fields. As a result, the yield in this region was likely to fall at least 33 per cent to 750 kg per hectare from 1,000-1,100 kg last year. Considering these, the earlier production forecast was unlikely to be met, especially for soybean, despite an increase of 1 million hectares in acreage, said Agrawal.
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Not only the government, but industry trade bodies, along with other stakeholders, had earlier forecast India’s oilseed output to be bumper, setting new record this year. Traders hoped the import of vegetable oil would decline this year due to higher domestic output. But, with oilseed output estimated lower, India’s reliance on overseas import may continue, even widen, due to a sustained increase in per-capita consumption.
India imports crude palm oil from Indonesia. But, as the Indonesian government raised export duty on crude palm oil, Indian traders have increased the import of refined edible oils not only from Indonesia but also from other major destinations like Malaysia and Argentina. India imports 8.5-9 mt of vegetable oil to meet its domestic annual need of 15.5 mt.
Industry veteran Gobindbhai Patel, however, has already factored in the crop damage across all oilseed segments and forecast soybean output even lower than the industry’s estimates to 10.5-10.7 mt, against the last year’s output at 9.8 mt.
The case is somewhat similar for groundnut. Against the government estimate of 410,000 tonnes, the Mumbai-based Indian Oilseeds and Produce Export Promotion Council expects groundnut output to be 407,000 tonnes, almost the same as last year. The agency, however, estimated a 22 per cent fall in sesameseed output to 311,000 tonnes, which may be revised.
The rapidly falling acreage is set to bring down the sunflower seed output to 130,000 tonnes this summer-sown season from 140,000 tonnes last year.
“The government’s oilseed figures have always been unrealistic which vary with the figures from the trade with a wide margin. Therefore, the government’s production figures can not be relied upon. Trades always assess individual oilseed crops after visiting the field and considering all factors including post harvest management,” said Patel.
According to Naveen Mathur, associate director of Angel Broking, the oilseed output during the current kharif harvesting season beginning October may fall even below 20 mt due to crop damage in groundnut and soybean following unseasonal rainfall in the crop maturing period.
