Kharif output to decline marginally: Refco

The shortfall is largely owing to the delayed arrival and advancement of south-west monsoon

Kharif crop output in 2005-06 is likely to range between 111.5 million tonne and 115.6 million tonne, down 3.5-7 per cent year-on-year, a Refco Commodities report said. The drop is likely in all key kharif crops, except cotton on lower yield potential.

As the last leg of southwest monsoon sets in, rain coverage in September is considered crucial for the late season crop development.

"The precipitation coverage forecasts are not as gloomy as they were late in August and have raised optimism for 2005-06 kharif production," the report said.

While the government estimates 1 per cent rise in acreage, a better yield year-on-year seems unlikely.

According to the report, the record 2.5 tonne per hectare yield seen last year is unlikely this season but the yield will be well above the average trend yields.

Cotton is also expected to see above-trend yields, the report added. Oilseeds, pulses and coarse cereal yields are estimated to run below trend this year amid dryness in late August.

The shortfall is largely due to the delayed arrival and advancement of southwest monsoon, leading to irrigation problems for regions dependent on rains for the purpose.

What followed delayed rains was a series of early season floods in Gujarat and mid-season floods in Maharashtra.

This delayed kharif sowing and led to lower acreage of oilseeds and coarse cereals.

Rains in August and early September are vital for crop development. Any absence of adequate rains will stress the crops and result in lower yields.

From mid-August, most states have witnessed scanty rainfall. Thus, kharif crops are currently in the "make or break" time-frame, the report said.

"It is important that India receives adequate rains in September to assure normal kharif production and to sustain sufficient subsoil moisture for the winter growing crops," Rajini Panicker, head- research, Refco Commodities said.

"September has begun on a good note with rain coverage expanding during the first week and 10-15 day forecasts are encouraging as well," Panicker said.