Cyclone Laila, which is currently just off the coast of Andhra Pradesh, could delay the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala, Ajit Tyagi, Director General of the India Meteorological Department, said today.
“It (Laila) may have some bearing on the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala, but we will check moisture content in air, wind speed and sub surface sea temperature over Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal before we can spell out the exact impact,” said Tyagi.
He said the storm is likely to fizzle out by May 24-25, after which the Met would check weather parameters to reassess the status of southwest monsoon.
The Met department had announced onset of southwest monsoon rains over Kerala around May 30 and expects monsoon rains to be “normal” at 98 per cent of the long period average.
Met department officials said the cyclone may delay onset of monsoon rains as ‘Laila’ seems to be heading north.
As the storm moves north, it can detach from monsoon, leading to redistribution of the energy of the monsoon current. This may weaken the monsoon current for some time.
“As of now, the cyclone is expected to move north and cover entire Orissa coast and adjoining West Bengal,” Tyagi said.
The head of the 135-year old institution said the cyclone is expected to hit Andhra coastline by 1500 IST today.
“Heavy rain would continue over coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh in the next 12-18 hours. Tamil Nadu, Orissa and southern West Bengal are also likely to experience rain as the cyclone moves northwards,” Tyagi said.
He maintained that as of now the cyclone “seems to be weakening” and safety measures should be adhered to for the next 24 hours in Andhra Pradesh and adjoining regions.
There are concerns that the Laila may develop along the lines of last year’s “Aila”, which had hit West Bengal on May 25 and robbed the southwest monsoon current of moisture and momentum. Aila has been one of the major factors responsible for last year’s drought, along with El Nino.
