Maharashtra farmers back to business

MONSOON WATCH

With Maharashtra (notably Mumbai), Vidarbha, central India and south peninsula India getting some respite from the fury of the monsoon, the agricultural operations that had temporarily been stalled due to waterlogging are expected to resume in the next few days.

Sowing operations in the north have continued thanks to intermittent pre-monsoon showers though some parts of the north-western region are yet to be covered by the monsoon. The north-eastern states, too, have been receiving wide-spread rains to sustain brisk agricultural activity.

The weather office on Thursday predicted substantial reduction in rainfall in Maharashtra and Gujarat in the next few days. The farmers have been advised to drain out water from the fields.

The intensity of rains is also projected to decrease in the peninsula and the Central India. But, Rajasthan and western Madhya Pradesh are likely to get good rains in next couple of days with some pockets being pounded by heavy showers.

However, the overall pace of kharif sowing this year has been fairly brisk with about 15 per cent more area having already been covered so far.

The planting of coarse cereals, pulses and commercial crops of sugarcane and cotton has been relatively more this year. But the sowing of paddy and oilseeds is lagging behind marginally.

Besides the weather related factors, prevailing market prices are believed to be influencing the farmers' choice of crops. Anticipation of good returns from pulses, cotton and sugarcane thanks to high current prices are said to be prompting the cultivators to put more area under these crops.

The planting of rice and oilseeds has, on the one hand, remained slow as the prices of these commodities have not risen perceptibly. But, these are only early sowing trends and may change as the monsoon season progresses.

However, what really portends well for the kharif crop prospects is copious water storage in the country's 76 major reservoirs. On July 3, the total water stored in them was 77 per cent higher than the corresponding position last years and 35 per cent more than past 10 years' average storage. Nearly 57 reservoirs have above 80 per cent storage.

Only three dams (Gandhi Sagar in Madhya Pradesh, Sriram Sagar in Andhra Pradesh and Rengali in Orissa) have negative live storage this year, against 10 reservoirs falling in this category at this time last year.

Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department has fine-tuned its earlier long-range monsoon prediction and now reckons the total rainfall during the four-month season to be 92 per cent of the long period average rainfall of 89 cms in whole country.

This is subject to model error of plus or minus 4 per cent. The earlier forecast had put the total rainfall at 93 per cent with a model error of 5 per cent.

Regionwise break-up of the predicted rainfall (with a model error of 8 per cent) is: northwest India 91 per cent, central India 90 per cent, south peninsula 97 per cent and northeast India 94 per cent.

Significantly, rainfall in the agriculturally crucial month of July has been forecast to be 97 per cent of the long period average with a model error of plus or minus 9 per cent. If this holds true, the country can look forward to extensive crop sowing in the current kharif.

Considering the likelihood of the monsoon advancing further in the next few days to cover the remaining parts of the north-western region, the agriculture ministry is advising the farmers to continue transplanting of paddy in the irrigated fields.

In partially irrigated and rainfed areas, the farmers have been advised to hasten the sowing of crops like maize, millet and soyabean. Besides, it is deemed the right time to transplant the seedlings of vegetables like brinjal, tomato and cauliflower into the main fields.

In the eastern region, the farmers have been suggested to continue paddy transplanting as the ongoing rainy spell is expected to last for some more days.

The farmers in the central India are advised to sow maize, soyabean, groundnut and vegetables. But Chhattisgarh farmers have been advised to go in only for short duration paddy varieties and not those which take longer to ripen.

In the western region, the conditions seem favourable for planting pearl millet, maize, sorghum, green gram, cowpea and cucurbits. The cotton growers of this region have been advised to withhold irrigation in view of sufficient moisture added to the soil by the recent heavy rains.